宏观经济周报-20251103

Domestic Macro - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined from previous highs but remains near the critical zone, indicating a temporary pullback rather than a trend weakening due to high base effects post-holiday[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index returned to the expansion zone, reflecting resilient domestic demand, with continued growth in service consumption and travel activities[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index saw a slight decline, primarily influenced by last week's significant expansion base effect[1] - The Export Sentiment Index remained stable, indicating a diversified trade structure buffering against weak external demand[1] - The Production Sentiment Index also experienced a pullback due to high base effects, with corporate orders and operational conditions returning to normal[1] Global Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% and announced the end of balance sheet reduction on December 1[5] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with a slight increase in the economic growth forecast for the fiscal year to 0.7%[5] - The European Central Bank kept the main interest rate at 2%, citing weak economic recovery in the Eurozone due to trade and geopolitical uncertainties[6] - Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, surpassing the market expectation of 0.1%, with France showing a growth of 0.5%[6] Market Focus - The ADP reported an average of approximately 14,000 new jobs added weekly in the private sector over the past four weeks, indicating a need for more timely employment data[7] - The U.S. government shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of $18 billion, with potential GDP impacts of 1.5% to 2% if the shutdown extends beyond six to eight weeks[7]