瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the expected import volume in October is set to decrease, and there is support from news related to syrup and premixed powder. However, the loose supply - demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, leading to short - term low - level operation of sugar prices [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5499 yuan/ton, with a 16 - unit increase; the main contract position is 372791 lots, up 21 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7462, down 68; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 52742 lots, up 5106 lots. The total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 586, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3990 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; within the quota for Thai sugar, it is 4049 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5052 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 5129 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5695 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), 5720 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 5740 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44098 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 324.58 million tons, a decrease of 49.82 million tons. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550000 tons, an increase of 5.49%; the Brazilian monthly sugar export volume is 324.58 million tons, a decrease of 49.82 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1571 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 1512 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 509 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 432 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.24%, an increase of 0.45%; for put options, it is 7.24%, an increase of 0.44%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.41%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.9%, an increase of 0.01% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - During the Chengdu Sugar Conference on November 1 - 2, the estimated sugar production for the 25/26 crushing season was announced. The national production is expected to increase to 1170 million tons, with 680 million tons in Guangxi, 260 million tons in Yunnan, 60 million tons in Guangdong, 70 million tons in Inner Mongolia, and 75 million tons in Xinjiang. In the first half of October 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 3403.7 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, and produced 248.4 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. The sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% in the same period last year. As of October 16 in the 25/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.249 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the cumulative sugar production was 3601.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [2].