氯碱周报：SH：下游压力传导压制烧碱价格，供应端增量价格缺乏支撑，V：11月供需过剩格局持续，价格难言乐观-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In November, the caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. With fewer maintenance enterprises, the supply is expected to increase. The price is weakly stable, and the overall trend is bearish. For PVC, from November to December, the supply pressure will continue due to new production capacity, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating pattern [2][3]. - Futures trading for both caustic soda and PVC should adopt a bearish approach, and options trading should be on the sidelines [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - Price and Market Situation: The price of caustic soda futures has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand changes, and cost shifts. The spot price has also been affected by factors like downstream demand and inventory. In November, the price is expected to be weakly stable [2][8]. - Supply: In October, the industry's operation was at a high - level with fluctuations, and the inventory of caustic soda plants first decreased and then increased. The national average weekly weighted operating load rate was 85.55%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity was 82.53 tons, a 0.12% increase from the previous week [21][27]. - Demand: The main downstream, alumina, has a weakening demand for caustic soda. From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new alumina production capacity is 1230 tons, which is expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons per year [32]. - Export: In September, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. In October, the estimated export profit declined [56]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price and Market Situation: In October, the PVC spot price decline accelerated. The core contradiction is that the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved. The futures price has also been affected by factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [63][64]. - Supply: In October, there were 20 PVC maintenance enterprises, 3 fewer than in September. The utilization rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC production capacity was 78.10%, a 0.49 - percentage - point decrease from September. The utilization rate of ethylene - based PVC production capacity was 81.48%, a 2.46 - percentage - point increase from September [79][85]. - Demand: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate sector continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [94]. - Inventory: The PVC inventory has been continuously increasing, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [102]. - Export: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 1.44 tons, with a single - month import increase of 16.08% month - on - month and 7.73% year - on - year. The export volume was 34.64 tons, with a single - month export increase of 21.945% month - on - month and 24.53% year - on - year [120].