Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut expectations persist, and factors such as trade uncertainty, weak ADP employment, US debt expansion, de - dollarization, and geopolitical conflicts boost gold's safe - haven demand. The "official buying spree" and the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar index make gold's strategic allocation value stable [3]. - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. The December contract has reached its peak, and the price will be dominated by the spot market. In November, the market's focus is on the January contract. If the rate - cut expectation strengthens in December, the January contract may have the momentum to hit the previous high; otherwise, the probability of high - level consolidation increases [17]. - Last week, Shanghai aluminum prices were strong due to the resonance of macro and fundamentals. After macro events, the market may seek new trading logic. Overseas disturbances may be more frequent than domestic ones, and Shanghai aluminum will oscillate at a high level in the short term, testing the 21,500 resistance level. Alumina prices may be weak in the short term due to oversupply, and attention should be paid to cost - profit and production - adjustment news [37]. - Currently, the smelting end is fiercely competing for zinc ore. The price of overseas ore has no advantage, and the domestic ore increment is small, causing the TC in November to drop significantly again. The smelting end's willingness to cut or stop production in November has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory provides support for prices, and there is an upward driving force in November [59]. - In the nickel industry chain, Indonesia's new regulations on 2026 quota applications for nickel ore are stricter. The new energy sector is in the peak production and consumption season, with tight market circulation and low overall inventory levels. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered due to weak downstream demand. Stainless steel prices have been oscillating weakly, and many large steel mills have announced production cuts for the 200 - series. The Fed's rate - cut decision and Sino - US friendly talks bring positive signals [75]. - Fundamentally, the supply of tin is weaker than demand, with a decline in Yunnan's production and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. The short - term supply - side disturbances are difficult to resolve, and Shanghai tin will remain strong in the short term, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [89]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply may increase in October due to the release of salt - lake production capacity and the possible resumption of "Jianxiawo". The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase before the end of the year. Overall, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show an oscillating and strengthening trend [105]. - In the silicon industry chain, industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high supply - side pressure and a downward trend in downstream operating rates. The polysilicon industry chain is reducing production and accumulating inventory, with weak fundamentals. The polysilicon futures have high volatility and high risks [118]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price and Market Conditions: The Fed's rate - cut expectations and various factors support gold prices. The US dollar index has a long - term weakening trend, and gold has a stable strategic allocation value [3]. - Data Charts: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold and US dollar index relationships, and gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventory data [4][8][12][16] Copper - Price and Market Conditions: Last week, copper prices fluctuated, and the December contract reached its peak. The January contract's trend depends on the rate - cut expectation in December. The current copper import profit is - 871.53 yuan/ton, and the copper concentrate TC is - 42.26 dollars/ton [17][28]. - Data Charts: Include copper futures and spot prices, inventory data, import and export profit data, and price difference data [18][23][33][35] Aluminum - Price and Market Conditions: Shanghai aluminum prices were strong last week and will oscillate at a high level in the short term. Alumina prices may be weak due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and has strong support [37][38]. - Data Charts: Include aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, price difference data, inventory data, and import and export profit data [38][40][45][54] Zinc - Price and Market Conditions: The smelting end's willingness to cut production has increased in November due to ore supply issues. If demand is stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory provides support for prices [59]. - Data Charts: Include zinc futures and spot prices, price difference data, and inventory data [60][67][72] Nickel Industry Chain - Price and Market Conditions: Indonesia's new regulations on nickel ore quotas are stricter. The new energy sector has tight circulation, nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel prices are oscillating weakly. Many large steel mills have announced production cuts [75]. - Data Charts: Include nickel and stainless steel futures prices, inventory data, nickel ore prices, and downstream profit data [76][80][84] Tin - Price and Market Conditions: The supply of tin is weaker than demand, and Shanghai tin will remain strong in the short term, with support around 276,000 yuan [89]. - Data Charts: Include tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and import and export profit data [90][96][100] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Market Conditions: The supply of lithium carbonate may increase, and the demand from downstream enterprises is expected to rise. The futures price is expected to oscillate and strengthen [105]. - Data Charts: Include lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory data, and price difference data [106][111][115] Silicon Industry Chain - Price and Market Conditions: Industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the polysilicon industry chain is reducing production and accumulating inventory, with high risks [118]. - Data Charts: Include industrial silicon and polysilicon prices, production, inventory, and cost data [119][124][131][135]
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251103
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-11-03 10:45