黑色产业链日报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs and the warming of macro - sentiment, but consumption demand has entered the off - season, and it is difficult for subsequent apparent demand to rebound. It is expected that the finished steel will fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The iron ore market is currently facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals" in the short term. With supply remaining high, port inventories accumulating, and demand suppressed by shrinking steel mill profits and falling hot metal production, coupled with the strong coking coal squeezing profits, the upside space for iron ore prices is limited [20]. - Policy on checking over - production and safety production restricts the supply elasticity of coking coal. Coupled with the upcoming winter storage inventory transfer, the downward adjustment space for coking coal spot prices may be relatively limited. If the supply of coking coal continues to tighten in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to - late November, the overall valuation center of the black industry is expected to move up [33]. - After the landing of macro - sentiment, ferroalloys return to their fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but are supported by the cost side below. It is expected that ferroalloys will fluctuate [49]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Although the cost side is expected to be firm, with strong expectations for thermal coal and the current low and stable salt price (no trend - like increase has been seen), the valuation has no upward elasticity without production cuts. The medium - to - long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and daily melting remains stable. The overall rigid demand for soda ash has stabilized, and the heavy soda balance remains in surplus. In September, soda ash exports exceeded 180,000 tons, which met expectations and continued to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash, but the cost support below limits the downward space [60]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe will be gradually implemented this month, which may affect market supply and sentiment in the short term. However, with the arrival of the off - season and high inventory in the mid - stream, it is rationally considered that the impact is limited and needs to be observed. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract has reached a new high, and the game may continue until near the delivery. There are still structural contradictions in glass. Without unexpected production cuts, the price of the 01 contract glass will eventually decline, but the realization path may wait until near the delivery. In the long - term, there is cost support and policy expectations [86]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures Prices and Spreads - On November 3, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3079, 3145, and 3168 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3295, 3304, and 3324 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar and hot - rolled coil month - spreads remained mostly unchanged compared to October 31, 2025 [4]. - Spot Prices and Basis - On October 31, 2025, the rebar summary price in China was 3265 yuan/ton, and prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou remained stable compared to October 30. The basis of different rebar contracts in Shanghai and Beijing also showed certain changes. For hot - rolled coil, prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang had some fluctuations, and the basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - Other Ratios - The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 on November 3, 2025, remaining unchanged compared to October 31 [17]. Iron Ore - Price Data - On November 3, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 782.5, 760.5, and 740.5 respectively, showing a decline compared to October 31. The basis of each contract increased, and the prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao such as PB powder, Carajás fines, and Super Special also had some changes [21]. - Fundamental Data - In late October 2025, daily average hot metal production decreased, 45 - port desilting volume increased, global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, 45 - port arrivals increased significantly, 45 - port inventory increased, 247 - steel mill inventory decreased, and the available days of 247 steel mills decreased [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - Disk Prices and Spreads - On November 3, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian 5 remained unchanged, and the basis of different coking coal types and contracts had certain changes. For coke, the warehouse - receipt cost and basis of different regions and contracts also changed, and the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts showed some fluctuations [34][37]. - Spot Prices and Profits - On November 3, 2025, the prices of different types of coking coal such as Anze low - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 coal showed different trends, and the prices of different types of coke such as Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry coke also had some changes. The import profits of different countries' coking coal and the export profit of coke also changed [38][39]. Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron - On November 3, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia increased, and the month - spreads of different contracts showed certain changes. The spot prices of silicon iron in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai had some fluctuations, and the prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and steam coal remained stable [49]. - Silicon Manganese - On October 31, 2025, the basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, and the month - spreads of different contracts changed. The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou had some fluctuations, and the prices of raw materials such as ores and chemical coke remained stable [52]. Soda Ash - Disk Prices and Spreads - On November 3, 2025, the prices of soda ash 01, 05, and 09 contracts all declined compared to October 31. The month - spreads of different contracts also changed, and the basis of heavy soda in Shahe and Qinghai remained unchanged [61]. - Spot Prices and Spreads - The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions such as North China, South China, and East China remained stable on November 3, 2025, and the spreads between heavy and light soda ash in different regions also remained unchanged [62][64]. Glass - Disk Prices and Spreads - On November 3, 2025, the prices of glass 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased compared to October 31. The month - spreads of different contracts changed, and the basis of different contracts in Shahe and Hubei also had some changes [87]. - Daily Sales and Production - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed different trends [88].