燃料油产业周报-20251103

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Research Analyst: Xu Liang Z0002220 - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - High-sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil, but its volatility increases due to high inventories and the impact of arbitrage cargoes [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Geopolitical disturbances and the lack of significant increase in OPEC supply have led to a strong and volatile crude oil price, supporting the cost center of high-sulfur fuel oil [3]. - The stable marine demand for high-sulfur fuel oil supports the fundamentals, while the supply of non-sanctioned resources is tight [3]. - The fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased by 25.92% week-on-week to 8.86 million barrels, reaching a new high for the year, indicating oversupply [3]. - The stable inflow of low-sulfur components from the Middle East and West Africa into Asia, combined with the continuous output of high-sulfur resources from Russia, suppresses the market structure [3]. 3.2 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data | Location | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | 2025 - 10 - 24 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 454.24 | 451.08 | 448.21 | 3.16 | 6.03 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 418.56 | 417.47 | 419.27 | 1.09 | -0.71 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/barrel) | 68.71 | 68.43 | 69.07 | 0.28 | 0.13 | | China LU Futures M + 3 (CNY/ton) | 3306 | 3272 | 3250 | 34 | 56 | | LU Futures M + 3 - Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 10.4709 | 5.1815 | 6.7305 | 5.2894 | 3.7404 | | Singapore - Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 33.87 | 31.7 | 24.56 | 2.17 | 9.31 | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 7.38 | 7.17 | 6.05 | 0.21 | 1.33 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 1.71 | 1.88 | 1.56 | -0.17 | 0.15 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 4.57 | 4.42 | 4.3 | 0.15 | 0.27 | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | -0.65 | -0.81 | -3.05 | 0.16 | 2.4 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Monthly Spread | 1.16 | 1.1 | -0.32 | 0.06 | 1.48 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Monthly Spread | 2.4765 | 1.778 | -0.6985 | 0.6985 | 3.175 | | LuM + 3 - M + 4 Monthly Spread (USD) | 2.9522 | 3.3718 | -1.6847 | -0.4196 | 4.6369 | | Singapore High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 2 | 69.96 | 69.23 | 63.28 | 0.73 | 6.68 | [5] 3.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data | Location | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | 2025 - 10 - 24 | Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 381.05 | 378.35 | 392.35 | 2.7 | -11.3 | | Rotterdam High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 394.95 | 392.6 | 397.1 | 2.35 | -2.15 | | US Gulf of Mexico High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/barrel) | 59 | 58.56 | 59.44 | 0.44 | -0.44 | | China FU Futures M + 1 Price (CNY/ton) | 2959 | 2968 | 2916 | -9 | 43 | | Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | -3.22 | -3.5 | -1.62 | 0.28 | -1.6 | | Rotterdam High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 8.47 | 8.5 | 9.38 | -0.03 | -0.91 | | US Gulf of Mexico High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 6.604 | 5.9055 | 6.2865 | 0.6985 | 0.3175 | [24] 3.4 Other Spread Data - FU Monthly Spread (USD/ton): 26.4127 (2025 - 10 - 31), 25.3161 (2025 - 10 - 30), 13.6135 (2025 - 10 - 24), 1.0966 (Daily Change), 12.7992 (Weekly Change) - Singapore High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 72.54 (2025 - 10 - 31), 71.92 (2025 - 10 - 30), 53.48 (2025 - 10 - 24), 0.62 (Daily Change), 19.06 (Weekly Change) - Rotterdam High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 24.45 (2025 - 10 - 31), 25.97 (2025 - 10 - 30), 29.27 (2025 - 10 - 24), -1.52 (Daily Change), -4.82 (Weekly Change) - US Gulf of Mexico High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 64.135 (2025 - 10 - 31), 64.4525 (2025 - 10 - 30), 64.4525 (2025 - 10 - 24), -0.3175 (Daily Change), -0.3175 (Weekly Change) - China High-Sulfur M + 2 - Singapore High-Sulfur M + 1: 8.0261 (2025 - 10 - 31), 13.6029 (2025 - 10 - 30), 9.2148 (2025 - 10 - 24), -5.5768 (Daily Change), -1.1887 (Weekly Change) - Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 1 Crack (USD/barrel): -4.74 (2025 - 10 - 31), -4.76 (2025 - 10 - 30), -3.38 (2025 - 10 - 24), 0.02 (Daily Change), -1.36 (Weekly Change) [35]