聚烯烃月报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyolefin market is currently facing a continuous imbalance between supply and demand, which suppresses prices. High production expectations were realized in Q3, with new production capacity gradually released. In November, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost side also lacks support. Overall, the downward pressure on polyolefin prices is expected to continue, and the market may fluctuate in the bottom range, with weak support from potential phased restocking demand due to low absolute prices [7][75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Quarterly Performance: In Q1, different upstream production rhythms led to different supply pressures for plastics and PP. In Q2, the market declined due to tariff impacts and weak demand. In Q3, the market was driven by policies, with a temporary rebound followed by a decline. In October, new production capacity and weakening cost support led to significant price drops [12][13]. - Spot Market: In October, the PE market declined. The monthly average price of LLDPE was 7,225 yuan/ton, down 2.41% month - on - month and 15.40% year - on - year. The monthly average price of LDPE was 9,325 yuan/ton, down 2.73% month - on - month and 14.31% year - on - year. In the PP market, the monthly average price of East China PP raffia was 6,585 yuan/ton, down 3.37% month - on - month and 13.25% year - on - year [14]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Production and Capacity - PP Production: In September 2025, China's PP total production was 3.2754 million tons, down 6.20% month - on - month and up 9.84% year - on - year. The loss due to maintenance was still high, but the overall production level increased. In November, some maintenance devices will restart, and the loss due to maintenance is expected to decrease [15]. - PE Production: In October 2025, PE production was expected to be 2.7806 million tons, up 10.48% month - on - month. The start - up load rate increased. In November, the maintenance loss is expected to be about 470,000 tons [16]. - New Capacity: New capacity from Guangxi Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and BASF Zhanjiang will gradually be released [29]. 3.2.2. Import and Export - PE: In September 2025, PE imports were 1.022 million tons, up 7.58% month - on - month and down 10.04% year - on - year. Exports were 99,000 tons, down 14.5% month - on - month and up 63.55% year - on - year [31]. - PP: In September 2025, PP imports were 290,100 tons, up 17.46% month - on - month and down 2.96% year - on - year. Exports were 237,600 tons, up 21.98% year - on - year [31]. 3.2.3. Inventory - After the National Day holiday, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased. As of the end of October, the inventory level was 675,000 tons, down 85,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory of PP commercial enterprises was 595,100 tons, and the social sample inventory of PE was 527,400 tons, up 2,900 tons month - on - month [33]. 3.2.4. Cost and Profit Analysis - Coal: In October, the coal market was stable to weak. The average profit of coal - based PE was 197.05 yuan/ton, down 431.21 yuan/ton from the previous month. The average profit of coal - based PP was - 258.13 yuan/ton, down 492 yuan/ton month - on - month [36]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the market was worried about oversupply. The average profit of naphtha - based PE was 46.68 yuan/ton, up 186.8 yuan/ton month - on - month. The average loss of oil - based PP was - 246.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.4 yuan/ton month - on - month [37]. - Propane: In October, the domestic propane price fluctuated downward and then stabilized. The average profit of PDH - based PP was - 808.19 yuan/ton, a decrease in losses of 384.27 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [38]. 3.2.5. Downstream Demand - PE: In October, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased in most cases. The demand for agricultural films and pipes showed different trends, and overall, the demand for raw materials had limited support [52]. - PP: In October, the start - up rate of most PP downstream industries remained high, but the new orders had limited continuity, and the support for prices was limited [53]. 3.2.6. White Goods Production - In November 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 2.847 million units, down 17.7% year - on - year. The domestic production schedule growth slowed down significantly in Q4, and the export decline narrowed [66][67]. 3.3. Market Outlook The polyolefin market will continue to be pressured by weak cost support and a loose supply - demand situation. Although the low absolute price may stimulate phased restocking demand, the market is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation [75][76].