建信期货钢材日评-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal commodity futures have rebounded significantly due to positive expectations from industry policies and the rigid increase in costs of coal, coke, and ore. It is expected that the market will continue to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend after a period of adjustment in the first and middle of November, but may decline again in the later part of November. Attention should be paid to the cooperation of the spot market and the positive cycle effect on the raw material market caused by the improvement of steel profits [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - Futures Market: On October 31, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2601 generally rose first and then fell. The closing prices of RB2601, HC2601, and SS2512 decreased by 0.48%, 0.72%, and 0.82% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts also changed [5]. - Spot Market: On October 31, the prices of a small number of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. The prices of rebar in Wuxi, Nanchang, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Hangzhou, and Changsha decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the prices of hot-rolled coil in Nanjing, Jinan, Wuxi, Guangzhou, and Shenyang decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical Indicators: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2601 contracts showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values continuing to decline and the D value continuing to rise, showing a potential dead cross. The daily MACD red bars of both contracts narrowed slightly [7]. - Raw Material Market: In the past 4 weeks, the shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil and the arrivals at Chinese ports have increased by 3% - 4% month-on-month, and the ports have continued to accumulate inventory. The price of iron ore has strengthened significantly. The coke production of independent coking enterprises has decreased significantly recently, and the third round of spot price increases for coke was implemented at the end of the month. The coal price has generally increased, and the spot price of coking coal has jumped significantly [9]. - Industry Policies: On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a new version of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", which put forward stricter requirements for the replacement ratio. Tangshan plans to implement a 30% production restriction on blast furnaces for 4 days starting from October 27 due to environmental protection requirements [8][9]. 3.2 Industry News - Energy Supply: The National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will ensure energy supply during the heating season. As of the end of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18%. As of October 27, the coal inventory of national unified power plants was 220 million tons, which could be used for more than 35 days [10]. - Market Indicators: In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - Steel Industry: The China Iron and Steel Association expects that the proportion of manufacturing in steel consumption will exceed 50% in 2025, and the annual output of crude steel is expected to be 998 million tons. The apparent consumption of steel from January to September decreased by 5.7% year-on-year to 649 million tons [11]. - Corporate Performance: The performance of various steel and energy companies in the third quarter and the first three quarters of 2025 varied. For example, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. achieved good results in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 130.31%. However, some companies such as Ansteel Co., Ltd. and Chongqing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. reported losses [12][13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, and the开工 rates and utilization rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces [16][20][24][27].