建信期货铜期货月报：宏观与基本面均向好，铜价重心上移-20251103

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Monthly Report - Date: November 3, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin - Industry: Copper Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Supply - The tightness in the ore end is spreading to the smelting end. The supply tension of copper mines persists, and the TC of copper mines is still falling. The supply pressure of refined copper at home and abroad is easing. - Demand - Short - term high copper prices inhibit downstream consumption, but there are still growth expectations for medium - term copper demand. - Macro - The bullish pattern in the macro - aspect remains. Sino - US monetary policy easing expectations will continue to benefit base metals, and copper prices will strengthen [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook - Market Review: In October, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (82300, 89270), with the total open interest rising 11% to 594,000 lots. The spot market turned from premium to discount. Social inventories continued to accumulate slightly. LME copper and COMEX copper also showed certain trends [9]. - Future Outlook: The supply pressure of refined copper at home and abroad is easing. The short - term high copper price inhibits downstream consumption, but the medium - term copper demand is expected to grow. The macro - environment is favorable, and copper prices are expected to strengthen [11][13]. 3.2. Supply Side: The Tightness of Raw Materials is Spreading to the Smelting End - Copper Concentrate Market: The supply and demand of the global copper concentrate market remain tight. In 2025, the incremental production of global copper mines is expected to be reduced to 270,000 tons. The TC of imported copper concentrates continues to decline, and the domestic supply - demand tension of copper concentrates intensifies [14][15]. - Cold Material Market: The import volume of anode copper in China from January to September 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. The import volume of scrap copper increased. The supply - demand situation of the cold material market is expected to improve in November, and the processing fees are expected to rise steadily [18][19]. - Smelter Production: The production of smelters decreased. It is expected that the output of refined copper in China will continue to decline in November, and the output in December may increase slightly [21][22]. 3.3. Demand Side: The Peak Season of Copper Products is Not Prosperous, and the Terminal Demand Shows Resilience - Domestic Copper Products Production: From January to September, the output of domestic copper products increased year - on - year. In October, the operating rates of copper rods and their downstream industries were lower than expected, and the new orders were limited [27][29]. - Automobile Market: The production and sales of the automobile market have increased for five consecutive months, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached a record high [31][32]. - Power System: From January to September, the investment in the power grid increased year - on - year, and it is expected to further increase. The investment in the power source is expected to lag behind that in the power grid [37][38]. - Home Appliance Industry: From January to September 2025, the output and export growth rates of home appliances slowed down, and the global home appliance production and sales are expected to face downward pressure [41]. - Real Estate Industry: From January to September 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion growth rates of the real estate industry were negative, and it is expected that the real estate industry will not contribute to copper demand in the short term [43].