碳酸锂期货月报：需求强劲带动去库，锂价看涨-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply pressure of lithium carbonate is decreasing, while the demand continues to grow. With the continuous reduction of social inventory and the support from the downstream - concentrated inventory, the spot market price increase is supported, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise [8][11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Market Review and Future Market Outlook - Market Review: In October, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 10.87%, with the contract running between 72,000 - 84,940. The total open interest increased by 30% to 883,000 lots. The spot lithium price also rose steadily, with a monthly increase of 9.5%. The supply reached its peak and the demand remained strong, leading to continuous inventory reduction in the social inventory of lithium carbonate [10]. - Future Market Outlook: The supply growth of lithium carbonate is limited, and the demand continues to increase. The social inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue rising [11]. II. Supply - Demand Analysis - Lithium Ore: Quantity and Price Increase: By the end of October, the prices of Australian ore, high - grade and low - grade lithium mica all increased, with the increase of lithium ore prices greater than that of lithium carbonate. In September, China's lithium ore imports increased by 14.8% month - on - month. The output of lithium mica decreased while that of lithium spodumene increased [14][15][16]. - Future Lithium Ore Supply Increment Analysis: Australian ore supply is expected to increase steadily; African lithium ore production is growing; American lithium ore supply will increase slightly; China's new lithium ore projects will release production capacity, with the increment concentrated in 2026 [20][23][25][26]. - Salt Factories are in Production Loss, but Lithium Carbonate Output Continues to Grow: In October, the domestic lithium carbonate output reached a record high of 92,260 tons. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased. Although salt factories are in production loss, due to the good downstream demand, it is expected that the output in November will remain at the October level [28][29]. - Future Lithium Carbonate Supply Increment Analysis: From 2025 to 2026, the increment of lithium ore will be 16.2 and 17.5 tons LCE respectively, and the increment of lithium carbonate from salt lakes will be 9.8 and 10.3 tons respectively. With the increment from the recycling end, the total lithium resource increment in 2025 and 2026 is expected to be 27.6 and 29.3 tons [33]. III. Demand Side: New Energy Vehicles and Energy Storage Demand Drive High Growth of Lithium Batteries - Positive Electrode Materials: Quantity and Price Increase: By the end of October, the prices of various positive electrode materials increased. In September, the output of positive electrode materials also increased, and it is expected that the high - prosperity situation will continue until the end of the year [35][36]. - Lithium Batteries: Price and Quantity Increase, and Exports are Good: By the end of October, the prices of various lithium batteries increased. In October, the output of lithium batteries increased significantly, and the export continued to increase while the inventory decreased. It is expected that the output in November will exceed 200GWH [45][46]. - China and Europe Lead the Global New Energy Vehicle Sales Growth: From January to September, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 29.3% year - on - year. China, Europe, and the United States all showed growth, with China's new energy vehicle sales reaching 11.2 million, a 35% year - on - year increase [53]. - High Growth in the Energy Storage Field: From January to October 2025, the output of China's energy storage cells increased by 55% year - on - year. The domestic energy storage tender scale continued to expand, and it is estimated that the annual output in 2025 will reach 520GWH [56]. IV. Lithium Carbonate Production Cost Analysis The production costs of lithium carbonate from different raw materials vary greatly. The current cost support level of lithium carbonate is around 62,000 yuan/ton [57]. V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet In October, the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, and it is expected that the market will continue to reduce inventory in the context of increasing demand and stable supply [59].