欧线集运月报：低点应已现-20251103

Report Overview - Report Title: "European Line Container Shipping Monthly Report" [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The year - end peak season is approaching, market expectations are turning positive. Although actual demand may not support a large price increase, a bottom - up recovery trend is likely to form, and the annual freight rate bottom may have been reached. - The conflict in the Middle East is frequent and repeated, and it is expected to be difficult to resolve within the year. The Red Sea may still be difficult to reopen in the short term. - It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][24] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 10 - Month Market Review - Shipping companies raised quotes for late October and November, and the container shipping index stopped falling and rebounded. The SCFIS, the underlying index of container shipping futures, began to rise in late October after 13 consecutive weeks of decline. - Multiple factors supported the strengthening of futures, especially far - month contracts. In early October, Sino - US frictions escalated, and the cease - fire in Gaza was in turmoil. The EC futures main contract 12 in October fluctuated strongly [11] 3.2 Freight Spot Quotation Situation - Quotes for November and December continue to rise. As the long - term contract season approaches, shipping companies are raising freight rates. For example, Maersk's large - container quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the first and second weeks of November are $2380 and $2210 respectively. Mainstream shipping companies' quotes in November are concentrated in the range of $2100 - $2800, while CMA CGM has the highest increase, with November quotes ranging from $2520 - $3546 and December quotes rising to $3752 - $4008. However, the prices may not fully materialize [14] 3.3 Container Shipping Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Demand Side - China's exports in September exceeded expectations, but the forward - looking indicators in October weakened. In September, China's total foreign exports were $328.57 billion, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The decline in exports to the US narrowed significantly, and exports to Africa increased substantially. However, due to the end of the seasonal peak shipping demand and uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs, exports still face risks. In October, the new export order index of PMI dropped significantly by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% [15] - The eurozone is facing pressure from both weakening exports and domestic demand. Multiple economic indicators in the eurozone have slowed down. In August, the EU's industrial production index decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and commodity exports slowed down significantly year - on - year. The inflation level in Europe is showing a downward trend, while economic growth is under continuous pressure due to geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions [17] 3.3.2 Supply Side - In terms of potential capacity, since July 2024, global new orders for container ships have increased significantly. The order backlog and completion volume of shipbuilding are significantly higher than the same period in previous years. The order backlog of container ships has continued to grow at a high rate this year, and the growth rate accelerated further in August. - In terms of actual capacity, the capacity in November increased compared with October, with the weekly average capacity increasing to about 290,000 TEU, and it is initially estimated to increase to 310,000 TEU in December. - In the Red Sea, after a brief cease - fire, the conflict between Hamas and Israel has escalated again. It is likely that the Red Sea will continue to be bypassed within the year, and there will be no additional capacity supply pressure [22] 3.4 Outlook for the Future - The year - end peak season is approaching, and the market is more optimistic. Although actual demand may not support a large price increase, the freight rate is likely to bottom out and recover. - The conflict in the Middle East is difficult to resolve within the year, and the Red Sea may remain closed in the short term. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying on dips [24]