建信期货锌期货月报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the realized export increment, the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the transmission of the tight - mine logic, which provides some support for zinc prices. However, the upside is constrained by weak consumption, leading to a weak rebound and repair of SHFE zinc at low levels [7][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1. Market Review - In Q1, the center of zinc prices declined and entered a wide - range oscillation range. In Q2, macro - risk events drove SHFE zinc futures prices to gap down and move lower. The shadow of tariff policies persisted, and the oversupply in the industrial supply - demand situation pressured zinc prices, which oscillated within a range. In Q3, the anti - involution trend in the domestic commodity market and the rising expectation of overseas interest rate cuts pushed the macro - environment to turn warmer. However, the continuous drag from the SHFE zinc fundamentals prevented resonance, resulting in a pattern of rising and then falling within a range. In July, tariff policies increased trade uncertainty, causing the market sentiment to turn cautious. The macro and fundamental aspects resonated, and SHFE zinc dipped to 21,865 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the anti - involution sentiment swept through the commodity market, and SHFE zinc led the rally among non - ferrous metals. At the end of July, the lack of super - expected stimulus in the Politburo meeting, combined with the fundamental drag, pressured SHFE zinc again. In August, the core contradiction of abundant zinc concentrate and zinc ingots in the zinc market became more prominent during the off - season of demand. Supported by overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the low - inventory pattern on the LME, SHFE zinc was difficult to decline significantly, oscillating between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton. In September, the strengthening overseas interest - rate cut expectation and the shift of the LME 0 - 3 structure to Back and its widening supported the zinc price from the external market. In China, the supply exceeded demand, and the inflection point of social inventory destocking was postponed. SHFE zinc lacked upward momentum and maintained an oscillating pattern. In late September, affected by the macro - environment, the strengthening US dollar led to long - position liquidation in LME zinc, dragging SHFE zinc below 22,000 yuan/ton. In October, with the opening of the export window, some zinc ingots were exported, and the supply - demand pattern improved marginally [9][10]. 3.1.2. Future Outlook - On the mine side, seasonal production cuts in northern domestic mines and some mines' active production control after completing their annual plans have led to a decline in domestic zinc - mine supply. The zinc - mine TC is still expected to weaken. In October, the imported zinc - mine processing fee also showed a peak - and - decline trend. Although the internal - external ratio has recovered from its low level, zinc - mine imports are still at a loss, highlighting the price advantage of domestic mines. With the support of smelters' winter - storage demand, the domestic TC is under more significant pressure. On the supply side, although smelters currently have relatively abundant raw - material inventories, the decline in domestic zinc - mine processing fees and the tightening of raw - material supply may restrict zinc - ingot production. On the demand side, the "Silver October" peak season ended, and the primary consumption sector performed mediocrely, with year - on - year performance worse than last year. Coupled with the weak prices of the black - metal sector, there were few bright spots overall. Affected by the closure of the import window, zinc - ingot imports significantly shrank. In mid - to late October, the export window to Southeast Asia opened, and the decline in the net - import level alleviated the domestic oversupply situation. The high - premium structure overseas stimulated the delivery of some invisible inventories, and the extreme value of 0 - 3 Back significantly declined. However, the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons. The tight - supply pattern and the generally optimistic macro - environment strongly supported LME zinc [7][25]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Winter Storage Leads to Peaked - and - Declined Processing Fees, and Domestic Zinc - Mine Supply Weakens Month - on - Month - ILZSG indicates that due to planned and unexpected mine closures, zinc - mine production has decreased in the past three years, but it may increase by 4.3% to 1.243 billion tons in 2025. It is expected that due to the increase in concentrate supply, refined - zinc production will grow by 1.8% to 1.373 billion tons in 2025, and demand will grow by 1% to 1.364 billion tons, resulting in a global refined - zinc supply surplus of 93,000 metric tons. In 2025, factors such as the复产, new production, and adjustment of mining plans of overseas zinc concentrates will significantly improve the tight - supply pattern of zinc mines. The overseas market mainly focuses on the Russian Ozernoye and Congo (Kinshasa) Kipushi projects as growth points, and the Irish Tara mine plans to reach full production in 2025. In the fourth quarter, domestic smelters are actively producing due to winter - storage demand, and the demand for domestic zinc mines is strong. However, domestic mines are reducing production due to seasonality and some mines' production control after completing their annual plans, resulting in a month - on - month weakening of supply. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee significantly declined in October. If the domestic supply remains tight, the imported zinc - mine processing fee is expected to decline further. Imported zinc mines are in a long - term loss, and smelters' purchasing willingness is low. The increase in the imported zinc - mine TC previously may lead to the recovery of overseas smelters' production, which may affect future imported - mine inflows, and the imported processing fee is also under downward pressure [26][27][28]. 3.2.2. Smelters' Raw - Material Inventories at a High Level, and the Price of By - Product Sulfuric Acid Rises - Due to the abundant supply at the raw - material end, smelters' raw - material inventories are at a high level. The rising by - product price further stimulates smelting enthusiasm, and domestic zinc - ingot production has increased significantly year - on - year in 2025. Since Q3, the internal - external ratio has decreased, and smelters have continuously snapped up domestic zinc mines due to the economic advantage of domestic mines. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee has peaked and declined, but the smelting - end raw - material inventory is abundant, and zinc - ingot production remained at a high level in September. According to SMM data, domestic zinc - ingot production in September was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The total production from January to September was 5.0691 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.85%. Domestic smelters will start negotiating the zinc - mine processing fee for November with mines. Currently, domestic smelters' demand for raw materials is strong, and the zinc - mine processing fee will continue to decline in the context of a tight - mine pattern. At the beginning of November, the SMM imported zinc - concentrate index decreased by $8.5 per dry ton month - on - month to $110.25 per dry ton, and the average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 150 yuan per metal ton month - on - month to 3,250 yuan per metal ton. The comprehensive zinc - concentrate processing fee (after a 2/8 split) is 4,700 yuan/ton. The decline in TC squeezes the smelting - end profit, but the price of by - product sulfuric acid continues to rise under cost support. In October, the increase in sulfuric - acid prices was less than that at the cost end, and there may be a possibility of production reduction, which drives the trading activity in the smelting - acid market, and the price rises accordingly. However, downstream resistance to high prices is prominent, and the domestic sulfuric - acid market may oscillate at a high level in November [35]. 3.2.3. The Export Window Opens, and Zinc - Ingot Exports Increase Month - on - Month in October - According to the latest customs data, 505,400 physical tons of imported zinc concentrates were imported in September 2025, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative imported zinc - concentrate volume from January to September was 4.008 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. Although the imported zinc - mine window remains closed, the previously locked - price and long - term contract zinc mines of smelters are arriving at ports successively, and the arrival volume of imported zinc mines remains stable. In the fourth quarter, mines are reducing production seasonally, and with the winter - storage demand and the high - level refined - zinc production, domestic smelters' demand for zinc mines is strong. However, the loss of imported zinc mines in October continued to expand compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively snapping up domestic zinc mines instead of importing, resulting in light spot - purchase transactions of imported zinc mines. It is difficult for the imported zinc - mine volume in October to increase further. In September, the imported refined - zinc volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. The cumulative imported refined - zinc volume from January to September was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, 2,500 tons of refined zinc were exported. The LME 0 - 3 structure overseas once expanded to over $300 per ton, and the high - premium structure stimulated local - area deliveries. The Back structure weakened to below $100 per ton, but the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons, and the tight - supply pattern remained. Overall, the loss of zinc - ingot imports is over 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export window opens intermittently. It is expected that the zinc - ingot export volume of domestic smelters and traders will increase to about 10,000 tons [39][40]. 3.2.4. The "Silver October" Ends, and It's Difficult to Find Bright Spots in Demand in the Fourth Quarter - The galvanizing start - up rate was 55.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%. The galvanizing raw - material inventory was 12,660 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 367,000 tons. Overall, consumption in October was lower than expected, and black - metal prices were lackluster. Downstream pipe traders mainly made rigid purchases, and the sales of galvanized pipes were poor. Enterprises increased their finished - product inventory and reduced production to lower the start - up rate to prevent excessive inventory. The finished - product inventory increased slightly, and enterprises still plan to lower the start - up rate in the future to prevent inventory accumulation. In terms of die - cast zinc alloys, the start - up rate was 49.73%. The die - cast zinc raw - material inventory was 13,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 10,230 tons. Currently, the overall downstream demand is relatively weak. Traditional hardware orders such as luggage zippers, small ornaments, and medals are in weak demand, and the current overall demand for real - estate hardware orders is also weak. Recently, affected by aluminum and copper prices, alloy profit support is insufficient, and some enterprises have raised the alloy processing fee. Under this influence, downstream customers also have a certain wait - and - see attitude and mainly make rigid purchases. Looking forward to next week, some enterprises plan to take a holiday to digest in - plant inventory. The start - up rate of zinc - oxide enterprises was 58.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. The zinc - oxide raw - material inventory was 2,417 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 5,740 tons. In the rubber - grade zinc - oxide sector, orders from large - scale tire factories are relatively stable, but the demand from some small - and - medium - sized enterprises is weak. In the ceramic - grade zinc - oxide market, the demand in the coarse - ceramic market is still relatively average, and recently, some enterprises have reported that the demand in the high - end ceramic - grade zinc - oxide sector has also weakened. In addition, the demand for feed - grade and electronic - grade zinc oxide is relatively normal [51][52]. 3.2.5. Real - Estate Sales Continue to Hit Bottom, and Investment Declines Expand - The market trading momentum continues to decline. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment expanded, and the year - on - year decline in commercial - housing sales volume also expanded. From January to September, the national newly built commercial - housing sales area was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, and the decline expanded by 0.8 percentage points. Real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year cumulatively, and the decline expanded by 1 percentage point. New construction decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points. The completed - area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points. The confidence in real - estate development investment is still weak. According to China Index Academy data, in September, the planned construction area of residential - land transactions in 300 cities decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the land - transfer fee decreased by 7.0% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline narrowed by 24.2 and 23.9 percentage points respectively compared with August. The industry's available funds are still under pressure, and the pressure on real - estate enterprises' funds directly affects the new - development and completion scale of the market. Currently, in addition to maintaining a positive attitude towards the development and construction of some products, enterprises mainly focus on optimizing and revitalizing existing inventory. In the short term, the overall scale - contraction situation in the industry will not change. In core cities, the incremental construction scale is expected to stabilize with the support of the fundamentals [66]. 3.2.6. The Policy of Trading in Old Cars for New Ones in the Auto Market Continues to Show Results - July and August are the traditional off - seasons for auto consumption, and the sales rush at the end of June overdrafted subsequent demand to a certain extent. However, the overall auto - market heat remained at a relatively high level, and the auto market still took the "dual - new" policy of trading in old cars for new ones and scrapping and renewing as the core growth point. In reality, affected by seasonal factors in summer and the transitional adjustment of the policy of trading in old cars for new ones, the growth rate slowed down periodically. In August, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones restarted in various places, and many provinces refined the subsidy - distribution mechanism. Coupled with the intensification of local stimulus policies, the auto market showed a gradual recovery trend. According to the analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues to show results. Some regions that suspended the implementation of the policy resumed subsidies, and policies such as consumer - loan support stabilized consumer confidence. Enterprises continued to launch new models, helping the passenger - car market to operate stably, and sales increased year - on - year. According to the CAAM, in September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 2.9 million and 2.859 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16% and 12.5% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 15.9% and 13.2% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 21.241 million and 21.246 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and 13.7% respectively. In September, auto exports were 652,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% and a year - on - year increase of 21%. From January to September, auto exports were 4.95 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. Many places have made frequent dynamic adjustments to the policy of trading in old cars for new ones. Some regions such as Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Qinghai have announced the suspension of auto - replacement and renewal subsidies. On the one hand, to ensure the orderly use of the third - and fourth - batch funds by the end of the year, the fund - use plan is refined by field and time. On the other hand, the national subsidy in 2025 is a phased measure, and it is difficult to have the same - scale subsidy in 2026. The exemption amount for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, and the consumer - loan discount rate will be weakened [72][73]. 3.2.7. The Scheduled Production of White Goods for Both Domestic Sales and Exports Declines - According to the latest scheduled - production reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in November 2025 is 2.847 million units, a 17.7% year - on - year decrease from the actual production in the same period last year. The scheduled production of all three major white