芳烃橡胶早报-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - For PTA, near - term partial device load reduction leads to a slight decline in TA开工, while polyester load rises, inventory accumulates slightly, and the basis strengthens. PX domestic operation recovers, overseas maintenance occurs, and PXN expands. TA's low processing fees have persisted for a long time, and with better terminal data, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, domestic oil - based restart causes the load to rise, overseas devices restart, and port inventory decreases at the beginning of the week but is expected to rise later. The long - term pattern is bearish, but there may be negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to coal - based cost support [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the restart of Fujian Shanli increases the start - up rate, sales decline, and inventory remains stable. The overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to opportunities to expand spreads and warehouse receipt situations [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, the price of Thai cup rubber is stable, and the rain affects tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Data Changes: From Oct 28 to Nov 03, crude oil changed by - 0.2, PTA spot price increased by 25, and polyester price increased by 100. The inventory increased by 5802, and the basis remained unchanged. PTA spot average daily transaction basis is 2601(-73), and Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton device reduced its load [2]. - Outlook: TA low processing fees have lasted long, and terminal data improvement supports polyester start - up. With limited far - month production, the processing fee center may recover [2]. MEG - Data Changes: From Oct 28 to Nov 03, Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, MEG prices decreased, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 38. The Tongliao 300,000 - ton device restarted [3]. - Outlook: The EG inventory is in a continuous accumulation stage, and the long - term pattern is bearish. But there may be negative feedback on the supply side after the decline of coal - based benefits, and attention should be paid to coal - based cost support [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Data Changes: From Oct 28 to Nov 03, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 15, and short - fiber profit decreased by 24. The start - up rate of Fujian Shanli increased to 96.8% [3]. - Outlook: The overall inventory pressure is limited, the disk processing fee is not high, and attention should be paid to opportunities to expand spreads and warehouse receipt situations [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Data Changes: From Oct 28 to Nov 03, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 45, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 285. The national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable [3]. - Outlook: The recommended strategy is to wait and see due to stable inventory and rain - affected tapping [3]. Styrene - Data Changes: From Oct 28 to Nov 03, ethylene remained unchanged, pure benzene in East China increased by 70, and styrene CFR China decreased by 5. EPS domestic profit increased by 30, and PS domestic profit increased by 29 [6].