农产品早报-20251104

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, corn spot prices will be under pressure due to concentrated grain listing; in the long - term, after the first peak of grain sales, prices may rebound as farmers may hold back sales. Starch prices follow raw material prices in the short - term and are pressured by high inventory, while downstream consumption rhythm is key in the long - term [3] - International sugar prices are pressured by Brazilian supply, and domestic Zheng sugar is stronger than the foreign market in the short - term. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar costs may be broken through [5] - Cotton prices are in a range, and the downside is limited if there are no major macro - risks. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7] - For eggs, supply pressure is partially relieved and demand increases slightly, driving a small price rebound. Future focus is on the chicken culling rhythm [13] - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term as new - season production is reduced and quality is affected by weather [15] - For pigs, short - term price rebounds are intermittent, and mid - term supply pressure remains. Key factors are production and inventory reduction paths, along with attention to slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, corn prices in Changchun remained stable, while in Jinzhou and Weifang they increased by 20 and 70 respectively, and in Shekou decreased by 20. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices are pressured by concentrated grain listing; starch prices follow raw materials and are pressured by high inventory. Long - term: Corn prices may rebound after the first sales peak; starch prices depend on downstream consumption [3] Group 4: Sugar Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, sugar spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming generally decreased, and import profits also declined [4][16] Market Analysis - International market: Brazilian supply pressures prices, and ethanol cost provides support. Domestic market: Zheng sugar is stronger in the short - term, and domestic sugar costs may be broken through in the long - term [5] Group 5: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 25, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 101 [6] Market Analysis - Cotton prices are in a range, and the downside is limited without major macro - risks. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7] Group 6: Eggs Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, egg prices in Hebei and Liaoning decreased by 0.23 and 0.22 respectively, and the basis increased by 17 [13] Market Analysis - Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases slightly, driving a small price rebound. Future focus is on the chicken culling rhythm [13] Group 7: Apples Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000, and the basis for different months changed [14][15] Market Analysis - New - season production is reduced, and prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term due to weather - affected quality [15] Group 8: Pigs Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, pig prices in different regions decreased, and the basis decreased by 220 [15] Market Analysis - Short - term price rebounds are intermittent, and mid - term supply pressure remains. Key factors are production and inventory reduction paths, along with attention to slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]