燃料油早报-20251104

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on November 4, 2025, focusing on fuel oil market data and analysis [3]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the 380 fuel oil crack spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened month-on-month, the basis fluctuated weakly, the European HSFO crack spread strengthened, and the EW weakened significantly. The 0.5 low-sulfur crack spread in Singapore fluctuated at a low level, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at a low level [6]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil stocks increased, floating storage increased, ARA's residual fuel oil stocks decreased, floating storage increased, and EIA's residual fuel oil stocks decreased slightly [6]. - In terms of shipments, Russia's residual fuel oil shipments rebounded this week but were still low year-on-year. In October, Russia's overall residual fuel oil shipments decreased month-on-month. Saudi Arabia's residual fuel oil shipments fluctuated at a high level, the UAE's shipments decreased month-on-month. Singapore's arrivals were neutral this week, and China's residual fuel oil arrivals increased month-on-month [7]. - This week, the domestic and foreign spreads of high and low sulfur rebounded significantly. The external low-sulfur market remained weak. The fundamentals of high-sulfur in Singapore were poor, but the EW and raw material premiums supported the 380 crack spread, showing a short-term fluctuating pattern [7]. Market Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 389.26 | 390.02 | 392.05 | 393.07 | 384.30 | -8.77 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 411.42 | 417.07 | 417.96 | 416.37 | 419.61 | 3.24 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.31 | -3.04 | -2.63 | -2.40 | -3.40 | -1.00 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 680.86 | 689.14 | 691.99 | 688.48 | 675.04 | -13.44 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -269.44 | -272.07 | -274.03 | -272.11 | -255.43 | 16.68 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 28.62 | 29.11 | 29.43 | 28.89 | 27.83 | -1.06 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 22.16 | 27.05 | 25.91 | 23.30 | 35.31 | 12.01 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 383.93 | 373.72 | 373.35 | 375.53 | 381.30 | 5.77 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 389.68 | 380.28 | 378.91 | 382.28 | 391.34 | 9.06 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 443.72 | 438.46 | 443.70 | 449.25 | 456.36 | 7.11 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 91.15 | 89.63 | 90.58 | 92.03 | 89.03 | -3.00 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.23 | -4.56 | -4.93 | -4.98 | -4.30 | 0.68 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -230.79 | -224.80 | -226.59 | -231.77 | -202.46 | 29.31 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 383.42 | 372.68 | 372.56 | 374.81 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 441.88 | 437.28 | 442.83 | 448.61 | 456.00 | 7.39 | | 380 Basis | -1.15 | -1.80 | -1.95 | -1.75 | -3.75 | -2.00 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 10.2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | - | 8.0 | - | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 13.4 | 12.6 | 14.3 | - | 10.2 | - | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2818 | 2796 | 2751 | 2745 | 2790 | 45 | | FU 05 | 2756 | 2744 | 2713 | 2712 | 2755 | 43 | | FU 09 | 2675 | 2672 | 2657 | 2653 | 2683 | 30 | | FU 01 - 05 | 62 | 52 | 38 | 33 | 35 | 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 81 | 72 | 56 | 59 | 72 | 13 | | FU 09 - 01 | -143 | -124 | -94 | -92 | -107 | -15 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3273 | 3246 | 3255 | 3268 | 3335 | 67 | | LU 05 | 3237 | 3212 | 3223 | 3239 | 3288 | 49 | | LU 09 | 3262 | 3235 | 3237 | 3252 | 3288 | 36 | | LU 01 - 05 | 36 | 34 | 32 | 29 | 47 | 18 | | LU 05 - 09 | -25 | -23 | -14 | -13 | 0 | 13 | | LU 09 - 01 | -11 | -11 | -18 | -16 | -47 | -31 | [6]