沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2512, it is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy around the 20 - day moving average, with some support from the cost line below [2] - For Stainless Steel 2512, it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On November 3, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,950 yuan, up 360 yuan from October 31; the price of LME Nickel was 15,115 dollars, down 135 dollars; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,630 yuan, down 25 yuan [11] - For spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,000 yuan on November 3, up 50 yuan; the price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi remained unchanged at 13,750 yuan [11] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 3, LME nickel inventory was 252,750 tons, an increase of 648 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 31,206 tons, a decrease of 182 tons [14] - As of October 31, the total nickel inventory was 48,746 tons, an increase of 1,050 tons [14] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 3, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 73,482 tons, a decrease of 175 tons compared to October 31 [18] - As of October 31, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons [17] Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On November 3, the price of Ni1.5% red clay nickel ore CIF was 58 dollars/wet ton, unchanged from October 31; the price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet ton was 923 yuan/nickel point, down 1.5 yuan [21] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,800 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 12,899 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,628 yuan [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 121,176 yuan/ton [26] Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: The firm price of nickel ore provides support for the cost line [6] - Negative factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; both domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate [6]