大越期货沪铜早报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared to the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to factors such as inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply-side disturbances, relaxed scrap copper policy, and a slowdown in China's manufacturing in October. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, considered neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 86935, with a basis of -365, indicating a discount to the futures, considered neutral [2]. - Inventory: On November 3, copper inventory decreased by 1025 to 133600 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased by 11348 tons to 116140 tons compared to the previous week, considered neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, considered bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, with a shift from short to long, considered bullish [2]. - Expectation: Inventory is rising, and geopolitical disturbances remain. The incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is fermenting, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Global policy easing [3]. -利空: Trade war escalation [3]. Supply and Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [19]. - The China annual supply and demand balance sheet shows production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply-demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [21]. Other Information - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - Processing fees have declined [15].