焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-4）-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, the supply has not been significantly alleviated due to the slower - than - expected resumption of coal mines and some local mines still being shut down. The downstream demand is good, the market trading atmosphere is active, and the online auction results of coal mines are good, supporting the coal price to remain stable and slightly strong. However, some coke enterprises have limited production due to poor profitability, and the purchase of raw coal is relatively cautious. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [3]. - For coke, coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, and the inventory is at a low level. Affected by the rising price of raw coal, the loss of coke enterprises has increased, resulting in insufficient willingness to start production. The supply of coke continues to be tight. With strong cost support, it is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is tight, demand is good, and the market trading atmosphere is active, supporting the coal price; bullish [3]. - Basis: The spot price is 1420, and the basis is 135.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [4]. - Main position: The main net position of coking coal is long, with more long positions decreasing and short positions increasing; bullish [4]. - Expectation: Some coke enterprises have limited production, but the demand for replenishing raw coal inventory still exists. Considering the poor profit, the purchase of raw materials is cautious. It is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, inventory is low, and the loss has increased due to the rising price of raw coal, resulting in insufficient willingness to start production. The supply is tight; bullish [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 1710, and the basis is - 61.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures; bearish [7]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [8]. - Main position: The main net position of coke has changed from short to long; bullish [8]. - Expectation: Some coke enterprises have increased production restrictions due to losses, while some steel mills are actively purchasing coke. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [7]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and difficult supply increase [6]. - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [10]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [10]. Prices - On November 3 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at different ports are provided, with some prices rising [11]. - On November 3 (17:30), the price indices of port metallurgical coke at different ports and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising [12]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [20]. Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Indicators - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].