白糖早报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent trend of foreign sugar is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar trend is relatively strong, and the near - month contracts are stronger than the far - month contracts. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract 01 is unsustainable. There is increasing pressure above 5500, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market increases [6][9] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include the increase in global sugar production, the expected surplus in the new year, the foreign sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [7] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Brazil's central - southern region produced 36.016 million tons of sugar in the current sugar - making season as of the first half of October, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China produced 11.1621 million tons of sugar in the 2024/25 season, sold 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4] - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5740, and the basis for the 01 contract is 241, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [6] - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6] - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO expects a supply deficit of 20,000 tons (basically balanced); StoneX expects a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 620,000 tons (another mention is 750,000 tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 153,000 tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 420,000 tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 40,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 115,000 tons [36] - China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 1.12 million tons, imports are 500,000 tons, consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 12,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38] - Import Cost: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [44] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content