大越期货沪铝早报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a sluggish real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a discount to futures, which is bearish [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum has decreased by 4,594 tons to 113,574 tons compared to last week, being neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - sloping, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, also bullish [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a mixed situation, with aluminum prices expected to be strong [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of aluminum is a combination of multiple factors. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, the price trend on the disk is bullish, and the main positions are bullish. The long - term outlook is bullish with short - term mixed factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. Daily Summary - Spot Prices: Shanghai's spot price was 70,770 with a decrease of 375; Nanchu's was 70,690 with a decrease of 450; and the Yangtze River's was 70,870 with a decrease of 400 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 699 to 70,798 tons; LME inventory decreased by 425 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory (weekly) increased by 29,728 tons to 136,300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 to 2023, the aluminum market in China generally had a supply - demand deficit, except in 2020 when there was a small surplus of 1.3 million tons. In 2024, it is expected to have a surplus of 15 million tons [23].