大越期货尿素早报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather conditions, while the industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1560 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -63, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), also bearish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, suggesting a bearish trend. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is also bearish. Considering the weak industrial demand, the rebound in agricultural demand, the strong international urea price, and the significant domestic oversupply, the UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Likely to Rise: The international price of urea is strong, and the agricultural demand is rebounding [6]. - Likely to Fall: The domestic market is oversupplied [6]. - Main Logic: The international price and the marginal change in domestic demand are the main factors influencing the market [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Price | The spot price of the delivery product is 1560 (-20), the Shandong spot price is 1560 (-30), and the Henan spot price is 1560 (unchanged). The FOB China price is 2686 [5][7]. | | Futures Price | The price of the UR01 contract is 1623 (-2), the UR05 contract is 1709 (+6), and the UR09 contract is 1742 (+6). The UR2601 contract basis is -63, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.0% [5][7]. | Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), including 1.554 million tons in factory inventory and 110,000 tons in port inventory [5][7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |