大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of lithium carbonate shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 81,280 - 83,280 [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral. Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 104,979 tons, a 0.61% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase. The overall inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [7][8][10]. - Basis: On November 3rd, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [10]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 80,421 yuan/ton, a 0.25% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 557 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 84,985 yuan/ton, an 0.80% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,158 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. It is bullish [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [10]. - Expectation: In September 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 19,597 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a 12.26% month - on - month increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [10]. - Likely Factors: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - Negative Factors: The supply at the ore/salt - lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Prices: Most lithium - related product prices showed an upward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 80,550 yuan/ton to 81,000 yuan/ton, a 0.56% increase [15]. - Supply - demand Data: The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73% month - on - month, and the monthly import volume decreased by 10.30% month - on - month. The monthly net import volume decreased by 9.46% month - on - month, and the supply - demand balance was in a deficit state [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Prices and Production: The price of lithium ore showed certain fluctuations, and the production of domestic sample lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica also changed over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also showed different trends [25]. - Supply - demand Balance Table: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium ore showed a state of deficit in most months, with fluctuations in production, import, and demand [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) showed different trends, and the monthly production capacity also changed over time. The amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China also showed a changing trend [29][31]. - Supply - demand Balance Table: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a state of deficit in most months, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends, and the export volume also changed over time [37]. - Supply - demand Balance Table: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed a state of deficit in some months and a surplus in others, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - profit - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds (such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate) showed different trends over time [43][45][48]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors (smelters, downstream, and others) showed different trends, with the overall inventory showing a decreasing trend last week [50]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Production and Sales: The monthly production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time, and the price and cost of batteries also changed [54][56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Prices and Production: The price, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time, and the supply - demand balance also fluctuated [59][62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Prices and Production: The price, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time, and the cost - profit situation also changed [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - lithium - Prices and Production: The price, production, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends over time, and the cost - profit situation also changed [69][72]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time, and the retail - wholesale ratio and inventory index also changed [77][81].