工业硅期货早报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial Silicon: The supply side's production schedule is increasing and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery remains low. With rising cost support, the industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9040 - 9240. The market is affected by factors such as cost increases, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in downstream polysilicon [6]. - Polysilicon: The supply side's production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support is strengthening, and the polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55270 - 56860 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Last week, the supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.44% decrease from the previous period, and the demand was 87,000 tons, also showing a decrease. Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level, organic silicon inventory is at a low level with a production profit of - 520 yuan/ton and an operating rate of 68.56%. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, and the cost support in Xinjiang has increased [6]. - Basis: On November 03, the spot price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous period, and the sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a 0.24% increase [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [6]. - Expectation: The supply side's production schedule is increasing, and the demand recovery is at a low level. Cost support is rising, and the industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9040 - 9240 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Last week, the production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous period. The demand side shows a continuous decline in production across silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 38,080 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,920 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 03, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 3815 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous period, at a neutral level compared to historical data [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing [8]. - Expectation: The supply side's production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support is strengthening, and the polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55270 - 56860 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of most contracts showed small increases, and the social inventory decreased slightly, while the sample enterprise inventory increased slightly. The production of some regions decreased, and the operating rate also changed to varying degrees [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of most contracts decreased slightly. The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some production decreasing and some inventory decreasing [17]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - The price basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon showed certain trends over time. The inventory in warehouses and ports, as well as the sample enterprise inventory, also had their own changing patterns [20][25]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - The disk price and the basis of the main contract showed specific trends, and the total inventory increased slightly [23]. 3.4 Production and Capacity Utilization 3.4.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly production of sample enterprises in different regions showed different trends, and the monthly production by specification also had its own characteristics. The overall capacity utilization rate and the operating rate in different regions also changed [28][30]. 3.4.2 Polysilicon - The monthly production and the operating rate showed certain trends, and the supply and demand balance also changed over time [61][64]. 3.5 Cost and Profit 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan, as well as the cost and profit of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang, showed certain trends over time [35]. 3.5.2 Polysilicon - The industry - wide average cost of polysilicon showed a slight increase, and the cost and profit of different products in the downstream also had their own characteristics [17]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance 3.6.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance showed different trends, with factors such as production, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [37][40]. 3.6.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance showed changes, with supply, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [64]. 3.7 Downstream Market Trends 3.7.1 Organic Silicon - The price, production, import and export, and inventory of DMC showed certain trends. The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also had their own changing patterns [43][45]. 3.7.2 Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production of aluminum alloy showed different trends. The demand in the automotive and wheel hub markets also had an impact on the aluminum alloy market [51][55]. 3.7.3 Polysilicon Downstream - Silicon Wafers: The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers showed certain trends, and the net export of single - crystal and poly - crystal silicon wafers also changed [67]. - Battery Cells: The price, production, inventory, and export of battery cells showed different trends, and the operating rate also changed over time [70]. - Photovoltaic Components: The production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components showed certain trends [not specifically described in detail in the provided content].