Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060. Influenced by the US soybean trend and technical consolidation, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discount suppressing the upward space of the futures price, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140. Affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones supports the price, but high imported soybean arrivals and the expected increase in domestic soybean production will suppress the upward space of the price [11]. - The short - term soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern. Factors such as the initial agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations, high domestic imported soybean arrivals in November, and the expected high yield of US soybeans will all affect the market, and it awaits further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The initial agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases of US soybeans and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrivals of imported soybeans in China will decline in November, the soybean inventory of oil mills will fall from a high level in November, the US soybean harvest weather is relatively normal, and with the initial Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal will return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the weakening demand for soybean meal in November suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. Affected by the US soybean and the off - season demand for soybean meal, it returns to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The high - level inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement will make the soybean meal maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting the clarification of US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Long Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Short Factors: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in China in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a high - yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Long Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [15]. - Short Factors: The high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the price expectation of beans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price is 2990 (East China), with a basis of - 36, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 115300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.33% and a year - on - year increase of 17.16% [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 24, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710790 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.39% and a year - on - year increase of 29.06% [11]. - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [31]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, China's soybean harvest area, output, and import volume changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - Soybeans: The main short positions decreased, and the funds flowed out [11]. Other Information - The daily trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from October 24 to November 3, including the average trading price and trading volume, are provided, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [16]. - The futures and spot price data of soybeans and soybean meal from October 24 to November 3 are provided, and the soybean meal futures oscillated upward, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot discount [18][23]. - The soybean and soybean meal warehouse receipt data from October 23 to November 3 are provided, and the soybean meal warehouse receipt quantity changed slightly [20]. - The soybean - crushing volume of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year. The downstream procurement decreased slightly, and the pick - up volume fell from a high level [25][26]. - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal rebounded from a low level [28]. - The planting and harvest progress data of soybeans in Argentina, the United States, and Brazil from 2023 to 2025 are provided, which reflect the growth status of soybeans in different regions [33][34][38]. - The monthly supply - demand reports of the USDA from March to September 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory [43]. - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the arrivals of imported soybeans in November decreased from a high level but increased year - on - year overall [44][46]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fell from a high level, and the procurement demand in the off - season decreased [47][49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the decline of US soybeans, and the futures profit fluctuated slightly [52]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price stopped falling and rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - raising profit improved recently [54][56][60].
大越期货豆粕早报-20251104
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-04 02:01