Report Overview - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current national egg price is stable, with the average price in the main production areas at 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas at 3.17 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 12 - contract rose 0.45%. [8] - In the spot market, large - sized eggs are in short supply while small - sized eggs are abundant at the end of the month, indicating high levels of both egg production start and culling. The spot price in November is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [8] - In the futures market, although the absolute price is at a historical low, the supply will remain high for some time as the accelerated culling is only in its early stage. The weak demand restricts the upward movement of the spot price, and the upside space is limited. The accelerated culling recently restricts the downside space. It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset, and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. [8] - In the long - term, the inflection point of the fundamentals may appear as early as the beginning of next year. It is recommended to track the weekly culling data. [8] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - For the 2601 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3325, the opening price was 3307, the highest price was 3370, the lowest price was 3297, the closing price was 3347, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.66%. The trading volume was 127,817, the open interest was 160,757, and the change in open interest was 150,408. - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2907, the opening price was 2907, the highest price was 2925, the lowest price was 2878, the closing price was 2905, with a fall of 2 and a fall rate of - 0.07%. The trading volume was 238,585, and the change in open interest was - 181. - For the 2512 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3144, the opening price was 3120, the highest price was 3179, the lowest price was 3103, the closing price was 3158, with a rise of 14 and a rise rate of 0.45%. The trading volume was 296,727, the open interest was 177,002, and the change in open interest was 421. [7] - Operation Suggestions: Use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. Track weekly culling data for long - term trends. [8] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of September, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.368 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. [9] - The monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises in September was about 39.2 million, down from 39.81 million in August and significantly lower than the 45.64 million in the same period in 2024. The monthly replenishment volume was moderately low in the past eight years. [9] - From the first to the third week as of October 23, the national culling volume of chickens was 20.02 million, 20.32 million, and 19.76 million respectively. [9] - As of October 23, the average culling age of chickens was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than the previous month. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, layer farming profit, average price in the main egg - producing areas, 12 - contract seasonal trend, 11 - contract basis, and 12 - 02 spread. The data sources are Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen, as well as the research and investment center of Jianxin Futures. [11][15][16]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251104
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-04 02:06