建信期货多晶硅日报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information was provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market is in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with the supply exceeding demand. The terminal demand is in a post - "rush installation" weak period. The market focus is on whether the fourth - quarter policies can be implemented and their actual effects, but the short - term is mostly affected by news. The 01 contract has a significant premium and is expected to run cautiously and strongly within the range [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - The polysilicon main contract price opened low and went high. The PS2601 contract closed at 56,065 yuan/ton, with a 0.18% increase. The trading volume was 215,288 lots, and the open interest was 143,844 lots, with a net increase of 1,488 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon: the transaction price range of n - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the estimated polysilicon output is 382,000 tons, with an average monthly output of 127,300 tons. The output in October was higher than expected at 137,000 tons. The significant profit recovery suppresses the willingness to actively reduce production. The current monthly output can meet the terminal demand of 68.5GW, and the supply - demand imbalance remains [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 03, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,590 lots, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In September 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a 31.25% increase compared to the previous month. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5]. - On October 27, Daquan Energy announced that its third - quarter revenue reached 1.773 billion yuan, a 24.75% year - on - year increase, and the net profit was 73.479 million yuan. The first - three - quarter revenue was 3.243 billion yuan, a 46.00% year - on - year decrease, and the net loss was 1.073 billion yuan [5]. - On October 25, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) disclosed its 2025 third - quarter report. In the third quarter, the company's operating income was 24.091 billion yuan, a slight 1.57% year - on - year decrease. The net loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company narrowed, with a year - on - year loss reduction of 62.69% and a quarter - on - quarter loss reduction of 86.68%, indicating a positive impact of the industry environment repair on the company's profitability [5].