建信期货油脂日报-20251104

Report Information - Industry: Grease [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Views - The decline of grease continues, dragged down by the inventory accumulation in palm oil producing areas and the uncertainty of biodiesel policies [7]. - The domestic grease supply is sufficient, the spot price drops with the market, and the basis quotation remains stable [7]. - The palm oil main producing areas have a strong production increase expectation, the export data slows down, and the domestic and foreign inventories are expected to increase, putting pressure on palm oil, but there are expectations of production reduction and B50 in the long - term [7]. - Based on the import cost calculation, the current price decline space of soybean oil is limited and it has buying value, but it is suppressed by high inventory, and the short - term price has limited upward momentum, with a possible fluctuation range of 8000 - 8300 [7]. - For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the arrival and crushing situation of Australian seeds later and the progress of China - Canada relations. The domestic spot basis is stable and slightly strong, and the de - stocking trend continues. It should be regarded as short - term shock adjustment, pay attention to the lower technical support, and the medium - and long - term idea is to buy on dips [7]. Content Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Quotation Information - Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Dongguan factories is 01 + 630, and grade 1 rapeseed oil is 01 + 730 [7]. - The basis price of grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market: For grade 1 soybean oil, in November it is Y2501+250; from November to January it is 01 + 260; from December to January it is 01 + 280. For grade 3 soybean oil, it is 01 + 180. For raw soybean oil, it is 01 + 60. The palm oil quotes of Guangdong traders are stable: 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 120 (at Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 100 (at Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 (at Dongguan warehouse), and 28 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 (at Dongguan warehouse) [7]. 2. Industry News - According to the data released by shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume in October was 1,639,089 tons, a 5.2% increase compared with 1,558,247 tons in September. Among them, the export volume to China was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons compared with 45,000 tons in the same period last month [8]. - According to the data released by independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume in October was 1,501,945 tons, a 4.3% increase compared with 1,439,845 tons in September [8]. - After the summit between China and the US leaders on Thursday, China has started to purchase US soybeans, and the stagnation of purchases in the previous months has been alleviated. People familiar with the matter revealed that China has newly purchased at least four ships of US soybeans, which will be shipped from the West Coast and Gulf Coast ports of the US later this year and early in 2026, with a total volume of about 250,000 tons, marking the gradual recovery of China - US agricultural product trade [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][15][23][28][29]