建信期货工业硅日报-20251104

Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 04, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as industrial silicon [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices opened low, then trended lower, and finally rebounded weakly. The Si2601 contract closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38%, with a trading volume of 226,808 lots and an open interest of 228,268 lots, a net decrease of 297 lots [4] - The price range of 553 industrial silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 is 9550 - 9950 yuan/ton [5] Outlook - Industrial silicon enterprises have insufficient willingness to actively cut production. Supply in October will exceed about 430,000 tons, and there is no incremental demand. The loose supply - demand situation means there is no inventory reduction drive, and social inventory still exceeds 440,000 tons [5] - Spot prices have limited guidance on short - term futures prices. The expected support in the fourth quarter mainly comes from rising costs in the southwest and active production cuts, but the effectiveness of the positive factors remains to be seen [5] - The industrial silicon market has limited strong drivers. The futures price is still within the adjustment range since August. In November, warehouse receipts need to be concentrated for cancellation and delivery, which will intensify short - term price fluctuations, but the upside resistance is still obvious [5] Group 3: Market News - On November 03, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 46,161 lots, a net decrease of 1,092 lots from the previous trading day [6] - On October 31, the industrial silicon market inventory was 447,700 tons, a weekly increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.59% [6] - In September, the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 61,500 tons [6]