建信期货豆粕日报-20251104

Industry Information - Report industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Report Core View - The US-China talks this week achieved phased results. According to the US side, China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually in the next three years. This agreement is expected to significantly reduce the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, shifting from oversupply to a tight balance. The US CBOT soybeans still have some room for price increase [6]. - After the agreement, the cost of imported soybeans in China has increased significantly, driving the price of soybean meal to recover. Short-term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a slightly bullish bias. However, the risk lies in the variability of the macro - policy, i.e., whether this policy will be continuously implemented and the implementation intensity [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3005, the opening price was 3018, the highest price was 3058, the lowest price was 3015, the closing price was 3026, with a rise of 21 and a gain of 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,248,829, the open interest was 1,595,045, and the open interest change was - 54,240. - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2947, the opening price was 2961, the highest price was 2986, the lowest price was 2960, the closing price was 2964, with a rise of 17 and a gain of 0.58%. The trading volume was 110,601, the open interest was 449,107, and the open interest change was - 3,049. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 2949, the opening price was 2955, the highest price was 2985, the lowest price was 2949, the closing price was 2965, with a rise of 16 and a gain of 0.54%. The trading volume was 1,437, the open interest was 3,708, and the open interest change was - 4,246 [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a slightly bullish bias. Attention should be paid to whether China will purchase US soybeans as scheduled and whether it is a policy - based or commercial purchase [6]. 2. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 due to the US government shutdown since October 1 [9]. - The soybean sowing area in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 crop year has reached 76.13% of the estimated area, a 16.08 - percentage - point increase from last week. However, the sowing progress is still slightly lower than the historical average of the same period and also lower than that of last year [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][18]