大越期货甲醇早报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation due to the expected weakening of fundamentals. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong is under maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operating rates and low inventory at upstream methanol plants still focused on sales, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering the current low methanol prices, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, so the decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the suppression of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. [5] - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For methanol 2601: Fundamentally, it is expected to be weak in the short - term. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures. As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports increased slightly, and the tradable supply in coastal areas decreased. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. It is expected to oscillate between 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton this week. [5] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Positive factors: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol operating rates are reduced, port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid devices are put into production or plan to be put into production, and CTO plants in the northwest purchase methanol externally. [6] - Negative factors: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, there is a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde enters the off - season, MTBE operating rates decline significantly, coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales. [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price data: In the spot market, prices in different regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian have different degrees of decline or remain stable. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis has widened, and the import spread has changed. [8][9][11] - Operating rate data: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rate in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week. [8][23] - Inventory data: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 128.29 tons, a slight increase of 1.31 tons from the previous period. The tradable supply in coastal areas has decreased by 0.53 tons to 83.83 tons. [5] - Profit data: Different production processes of methanol have different profit situations. Coal - based methanol has a profit of 105 yuan/ton, natural gas - based methanol has a loss of 40 yuan/ton, and coke - oven gas - based methanol has a profit of 305 yuan/ton. [22] 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic devices: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the northwest, north, east, and southwest are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and loss amounts. [58] - Overseas devices: Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions. [59] - Olefin devices: Some olefin plants in the northwest and east are under maintenance, running stably, or have plans for production expansion or shutdown. [60]