大越期货菜粕早报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will be affected by soybean meal in the short term and maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2460 - 2520 range - bound state. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is decreasing both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish; the main long positions are increasing with capital inflow, which is bullish. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate and decline due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, and will return to a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, and the impacts of Ukraine's rapeseed production reduction and Russia's production increase due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 24 to November 3, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2997 - 3079 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 5.35 - 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2480 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.3 million tons on October 29. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 479 - 528 yuan/ton [13]. - From October 24 to November 3, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract fluctuated between 2325 - 2491 yuan/ton, the far - month 2605 contract fluctuated between 2300 - 2380 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian fluctuated between 2480 - 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - From October 23 to November 3, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4702 to 2955 [16]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, the rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level, and the rapeseed processing volume of oil mills remained low. Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [22][24][34]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide specific content for position data.