原油成品油早报-20251104

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - This week, crude oil prices remained volatile. On Friday, news of a potential US military attack on Venezuela drove prices up, and on Sunday, OPEC+ confirmed a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in December. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. US commercial crude inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels due to a significant drop in net imports, and gasoline and diesel inventories also declined. Refining margins in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, but the pressure to release crude oil supply is high, with Brazil's P78 coming into production, OPEC further increasing production, and US total production remaining at a high level. Crude oil is expected to maintain a weak pattern [4]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Market Data - From October 28 to November 3, WTI prices increased from $60.15 to $61.05, BRENT from $64.40 to $64.89, and DUBAI from $64.94 to $66.30. Other related products also showed corresponding price changes [3]. 2. Daily News - Turkey is reducing Russian oil purchases due to US sanctions and seeking alternative supplies from countries like Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan. However, it neither can nor intends to completely stop importing Russian oil [3]. - OPEC still sees positive signs in oil demand and expects no unexpected market situations. It agreed to a small production increase in December and a pause in further increases in Q1 2026, and expects oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day this year [3]. - Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude price forecast for H1 2026 to $60 per barrel from $57.5, and expects the supply - surplus problem to balance in H2 2027 with prices rising back to $65 [4]. - India's Bharat Petroleum bought 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum crude for December shipment [4]. 3. Inventory - In the week ending October 24, US crude exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day [4]. - US domestic crude production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a 1.62% decline [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a 0.91% decrease from the same period last year [4]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [4]. - US commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.051 million barrels per day, a decrease of 867,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4]. - US gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased more than expected in the week ending October 24 [4]. - From October 23 - 30, domestic major refinery operations decreased, while independent refineries' operations slightly increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, with independent refinery gasoline inventories rising and diesel inventories falling. Both major and independent refinery profits declined [4].