建信期货铝日报-20251104

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core View - On November 3, Shanghai aluminum opened high and went higher, with the main 2512 contract closing at 21,600 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase, hitting a new high for the year. The spot market showed that although traders in East China increased shipments, downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase due to high prices. The import window was closed, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continued, with the spot import loss expanding to about -2,600 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the follow - up under the support of a positive macro - environment [9]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Performance - On November 3, the main 2512 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,600 yuan/ton, up 1.48% [9]. - In the spot market, East China reported at par, Central China at a discount of -140, and South China at a discount of -150. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss expanded to about -2,600 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Analysis - Domestic bauxite remained tight. Mines in the north affected by environmental protection and the rainy season could resume production, but the specific time awaited government approval. The price increase of northern bauxite was expected to be limited due to high inventory and weak restocking willingness of alumina plants, while southern bauxite prices remained stable. Imported bauxite was sluggish, and the price of Guinean bauxite was under pressure. Policy disturbances in November should be noted [9]. - Alumina remained in surplus, and the import window was open, with pressure from overseas inflows. In the north, attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection requirements after heating in November and annual carbon emission verifications. The low - price situation and long - term delivery obligations put great pressure on enterprises, and the spot long - term settlement price in November was close to the cash cost of high - cost production capacity, which might lead to production cuts [9]. - Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, providing strong cost support. After November, the traditional peak season basically ended, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level following Shanghai aluminum [9]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic operating capacity remained high with limited changes. The production cuts of Century Aluminum this month and the expected production cuts of Mozambique Aluminum next year might intensify the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. With positive macro - factors such as successful Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the aluminum market was expected to be strong in the follow - up [9]. Group 5: Industry News - On October 30, the second - phase alumina project of the Guinea Aluminum Development Project of State Power Investment Corporation officially started. It is planned to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 1.2 million tons and supporting facilities, and is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2028 [10]. - Mercuria, a global commodity trading giant, is transporting over 30,000 tons of aluminum from Port Klang, Malaysia, to New Orleans, USA, presumably to meet the needs of its US customers. Mercuria's long - term holding of over 90% of LME aluminum warehouse receipts is considered the key factor for the premium of LME near - month aluminum contracts over far - month contracts [10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan (including domestic and imported cans) was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [10]. - The China Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association suggested implementing different strategies for the "anti - involution" of the non - ferrous metal smelting industry, including setting a production capacity "ceiling" for bulk metals, enhancing concentration through mergers and acquisitions for strategic metals, and guiding enterprises to transform towards personalization and high added - value [10].