广发期货日评-20251104

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Overall Outlook - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [2] Group 2: Core Views - The overall market sentiment has improved slightly, with different sectors showing various trends. The stock index market is in a shrinking and volatile state, the bond market interest rate is expected to decline, and the precious metal market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. Commodity markets such as black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products also have their own characteristics and trends [2] Group 3: Sector - by - Sector Summaries Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: The market is volatile after a short - term high, with the cyclical sectors outperforming. It is recommended to try to lightly sell put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads [2] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond interest rate is expected to decline slightly, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2] - Precious Metals: Gold is expected to trade between $3995 - $4070 (910 - 935 yuan), and it is recommended to trade within the range or sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices. Silver is in a range of $47 - $50 (11000 - 11700 yuan) [2] Commodity Sector Shipping - Container Shipping Index (EC): It is in short - term shock, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2] Black Metals - Steel: The apparent demand is rising, and inventory pressure is relieved. It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [2] - Iron Ore: It is recommended to go short on rallies for the January 2026 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [2] - Coking Coal: It is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2026 contract and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2] - Coke: It is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2026 contract and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support level of 86000 - 86500 [2] - Alumina: The main contract is expected to run in the range of 2750 - 2900 [2] - Aluminum: The price has broken through recent highs, and short - term corrections should be watched out for. The main reference range is 20800 - 21600 [2] - Zinc: The price is oscillating strongly, with a reference range of 22300 - 23000 [2] - Tin: It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - Nickel: The main reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - Stainless Steel: The price is oscillating weakly, with a reference range of 12500 - 13000 [2] Energy and Chemicals - PX: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to shrink the PX - SC spread [2] - PTA: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and conduct 1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2] - Short - Fiber: The rebound is under pressure. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [2] - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand pattern is loose. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [2] - Ethanol (MEG): The upward drive is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage on rallies [2] - Caustic Soda: The price is under pressure, and a bearish view is recommended [2] - PVC: The supply - demand contradiction is not improved, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2] - Benzene: It is recommended to be bearish on rallies following the oil price [2] - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be in tight balance. It is recommended to be bearish on the rebound of the December contract [2] - LLDPE: The overall trading is poor. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [2] - PP: The trading is light, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [2] - Methanol: Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 3 - 5 spread [2] - Synthetic Rubber: It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2] Agricultural Products - Meal: China has started to purchase US soybeans, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the January 2026 contract [2] - Pig: The supply - demand is loose, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [2] - Corn: The supply has decreased, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160 [2] - Oil: The fundamentals are bearish, and the Y main contract may test the support of 8000 yuan [2] - Sugar: Overseas supply is loose, and the domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, oscillating at the bottom around 5450 - 5550 [2] - Cotton: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, oscillating in the range of 13500 - 13800 [2] - Egg: It is short - term strong but long - term bearish. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage and short - selling opportunities [2] - Apple: The price of ground fruits in Shandong has declined, and attention should be paid to the support of 9000 yuan [2] - Jujube: The jujubes are concentrated on the ground, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the support of 10000 [2] - Soda Ash: The surplus pattern continues, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2] Special Commodities - Glass: The change of production lines in Shahe has affected the market. Attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales to capture short - term long opportunities [2] - Rubber: The inventory of dark - colored rubber has reached an inflection point, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [2] - Industrial Silicon: The operating rate has decreased, and the price may be strong after oscillating [2] New Energy Sector - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of platform company implementation. The price may be strong after oscillating [2] - Lithium Carbonate: The price is in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan [2]