大越期货甲醇周报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the expected weakening of the fundamentals, it is predicted that the domestic methanol market will continue to operate weakly in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, the traditional downstream acetic acid has a low operating rate, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on the demand side. Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, and upstream methanol plants still maintain low inventories and focus on sales. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is already at a low level, the cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, so the decline is expected to be limited. In the port area, under the suppression of the expected high overseas supply and the bearish sentiment of high port inventories, it is expected that the port methanol market will continue to decline weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact of the sanctions event, the shipping situation from Iran, and the operating rate of coastal MTO plants [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market is expected to continue its weak trend due to weakening fundamentals, with limited decline due to low prices and trader caution. The port market will also decline weakly under high - supply expectations and high inventories [5]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From October 24th to October 31st, the prices in Jiangsu decreased by 3.71% to 2157 yuan/ton, in Hebei decreased by 0.92% to 2155 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.72% to 2005 yuan/ton, and in Fujian decreased by 2.66% to 2195 yuan/ton. The price in Lunan remained unchanged at 2310 yuan/ton [6]. 2.2 Methanol Futures and Basis - From October 24th to October 31st, the futures price decreased by 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 9 [8]. 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based methanol profit increased by 64 to 130 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit increased by 324 to 305 yuan/ton from October 24th to October 31st [10]. 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the northwest region's load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12]. 2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From October 24th to October 31st, CFR China decreased by 4.20% to 251 US dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 0.31% to 323.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread increased by 10 to - 72.5 US dollars/ton [15]. 2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From October 24th to October 31st, the spot price decreased by 3.71% to 2157 yuan/ton, the import cost decreased by 4.08% to 2208 yuan/ton, and the import spread increased by 11 to - 51 yuan/ton [18]. 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From October 24th to October 31st, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged at 1070 yuan/ton, 3850 yuan/ton, and 2600 yuan/ton respectively [25]. 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The profit increased by 9 to - 149 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% [26]. - Dimethyl ether: The profit increased by 28 to 490 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% [28]. - Acetic acid: The profit increased by 46 to 214 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% [33]. 2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - From October 24th to October 31st, the MTO production profit increased by 266 to - 202 yuan/ton, and the MTO load decreased by 0.15% to 79.69% [37]. 2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - The inventory in East China decreased by 0.53 to 78.18 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 1.84 to 50.11 tons [41]. 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - From October 24th to October 31st, the warehouse receipts decreased by 16.00% to 11837, and the valid forecasts remained at 0 [42]. 3. Maintenance Status 3.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic methanol plants in various regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end dates and maintenance loss volumes [44]. 3.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas methanol plants in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., have different operating statuses, including normal operation, restarting, and planned maintenance [45]. 3.3 Olefin Plant Operation - Olefin plants in different regions such as Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and Tianjin have various operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production [46].