《能源化工》日报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views Methanol - The methanol market is currently trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory issue for the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be priced in until the Iranian gas restriction [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - PP supply recovery has slowed due to unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance nears its peak. Demand has improved, but there is still pressure as supply is expected to increase while demand may decrease. The 01 contract faces inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may present long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda & PVC) - In November, the caustic soda market faces supply - demand pressure, with prices expected to be weak and stable. PVC's supply - demand imbalance remains unimproved, with prices likely to continue weak and volatile, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with weak price drivers. Short - term trading of BZ2603 should focus on short - selling on rallies following oil prices. Styrene supply may slightly decrease, and demand is expected to change little. The supply - demand situation is currently loose, and prices are expected to have limited drivers. EB12 should be short - sold on rebounds [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but its price rebound is limited. PTA supply - demand is slightly loose, and its price rebound is under pressure. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and its price faces upward pressure. Short - fiber prices are gradually under pressure, and bottle - chip supply - demand remains loose [11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - Prices and Spreads: On October 31st, MA2601 closed at 2180, down 28 (-1.27%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2260, down 24 (-1.05%); the MA15 spread was -80, down 4 (5.26%); the Taicang basis was -50, down 5 (11.11%); spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all declined [1]. - Inventories: Methanol enterprise inventories increased by 1.57 (4.36%) to 37.606%; port inventories decreased by 0.57 (-0.38%) to 150.6 million tons; social inventories increased by 1.00 (0.53%) to 188.3% [2]. - 开工率: Domestic upstream enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.07 (-0.09%) to 75.78%; overseas upstream开工率 decreased by 2.68 (-3.65%) to 70.7%; downstream MTO装置开工率 increased by 5.96 (7.63%) to 84.06% [3]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: On November 3rd, L2601 closed at 6888, down 11 (-0.16%); PP2601 closed at 6576, down 14 (-0.21%); some spot and futures prices and spreads changed [8]. - Inventories: PE enterprise inventories decreased by 9.86 (-19.16%) to 41.6; social inventories decreased by 1.80 (-3.30%) to 52.7 million tons; PP enterprise inventories decreased by 4.34 (-6.80%) to 59.5 million tons; trader inventories decreased by 2.50 (-10.48%) to 21.4 [8]. - 开工率: PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.59 (-0.73%) to 60.9; downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 0.38 (-0.83%) to 45.4; PP装置开工率 increased by 1.13 (1.5%) to 77.1; downstream weighted开工率 increased by 0.24 (0.5%) to 52.6 [8]. Chlor - alkali - Prices and Spreads: On November 3rd, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500; the price of East China PVC decreased, and some futures prices and spreads changed [9]. - Supply: The caustic soda industry开工率 increased by 2.8 (3.3%) to 88.3; PVC总开工率 increased by 3.4 (4.5%) to 77.1 [9]. - Demand: The开工率 of some caustic soda downstream industries changed slightly, and the开工率 of PVC downstream products increased [9]. - Inventories: Liquid caustic soda inventories in East China and Shandong increased, PVC upstream factory inventories increased slightly, and total social inventories decreased by 1.0 (-1.8%) to 54.5 [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: On November 3rd, Brent crude oil (December) was at $64.89, down $0.18 (-0.3%); CFR China pure benzene was at $681, up $4 (0.6%); some pure benzene prices and spreads changed [10]. - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: Styrene East China spot price was 6440, down 30 (-0.5%); EB12 - EB01 was -49, down 8 (-19.5%); some other prices and spreads also changed [10]. - Inventories: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventories increased by 3.60 (42.4%) to 12.10 million tons; styrene Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 1.37 (-7.1%) to 17.93 million tons [10]. - 开工率: Asian pure benzene开工率 decreased by 0.4% (-0.5%) to 78.8%; domestic pure benzene开工率 increased by 1.4% (1.9%) to 74.1%; styrene开工率 decreased by 2.5% (-3.7%) to 66.7% [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: On November 3rd, Brent crude oil (January) was at $64.89, up $0.12 (0.2%); CFR China PX was at $820, unchanged; some other upstream prices changed [11]. - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: POY150/48 price was 6515, up 100 (1.6%); POY150/48 cash flow was 37, up 91; some other downstream product prices and cash flows changed [11]. - Inventories: MEG port inventories increased by 3.9 (7.5%) to 56.2 million tons; MEG to - port expectations decreased by 0.9 (-4.5%) to 18 [11]. - 开工率: Asian PX开工率 decreased by 0.4% to 78.1%; China PX开工率 increased by 1.1% to 87.0%; PTA开工率 decreased by 0.8% to 78.0% [11].