《特殊商品》日报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded after opening low. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips when prices fall to around 8,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of November contracts [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are oscillating downward. In November, the supply pressure decreases, but the demand also declines. The market is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures can be bought on dips when prices return to the lower end of the range. Options can sell put options around 50,000 to earn premiums. For the equity side, buy photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks. Also, pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of November contracts [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weakly oscillating, with low demand and obvious oversupply. The market is bearish in the long - term. Consider short - selling on rebounds. For glass, there is a short - term emotional impact on the market, and mid - to long - term supply pressure remains. In November, there is still a demand expectation during the peak season. Pay attention to the demand performance after price cuts. Look for short - term long opportunities on rebounds [4]. Logs - Log futures prices are oscillating weakly. Although the supply of arrivals is increasing, downstream orders are insufficient, and the market is under pressure. However, the inverted price between domestic and foreign markets provides cost support. The futures market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [5]. Natural Rubber - In the short term, the cost side strongly supports rubber prices due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. In the long term, there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand is weakening, and dark - colored rubber has shown an inflection point in inventory accumulation. If raw material supply increases smoothly, rubber prices may decline further, with a possible range of 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.43%. The basis decreased by 20.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 8.00% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 2.33%, 2512 - 2601 decreased by 16.67%, 2602 - 2603 decreased by 100.00%, and 2603 - 2604 increased by 250.00% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons. Xinjiang's production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons, Yunnan's decreased by 9.60% to 5.38 million tons, and Sichuan's decreased by 1.91% to 5.19 million tons. The national operating rate increased by 10.86% to 61.94%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.29% to 20.96 million tons, polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons. Industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased by 0.28% to 10.81 million tons, Yunnan's increased by 1.47% to 3.46 million tons, and Sichuan's remained unchanged at 2.52 million tons. Social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 55.80 million tons, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.31% to 23.08 million tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1.38% to 32.72 million tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis increased by 8.29%. The average prices of N - type silicon wafers, single - crystal Topcon cells, and related components remained unchanged [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price decreased by 0.61%. The spreads of consecutive months showed different degrees of change, such as the spread of the current month - the first - consecutive month decreased by 6.62% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.33% to 14.24 million tons, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.41% to 2.82 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, imports increased by 28.46% to 0.13 million tons, exports decreased by 28.16% to 0.21 million tons, and net exports decreased by 56.83% to 0.09 million tons. Silicon wafer production increased by 2.71% to 60.65 million tons, imports decreased by 17.96% to 0.04 million tons, exports remained unchanged at 0.67 million tons, and net exports increased by 1.96% to 0.63 million tons. Silicon wafer demand decreased by 2.79% to 69.63 million tons [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.16% to 26.10 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 2.49% to 18.93 million tons. Polysilicon contracts remained unchanged at 9,590 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in North China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 0.80%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly. The 05 basis decreased by 6.86% [4]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in North China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 0.80%. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased. The 05 basis increased by 162.50% [4]. Supply - Soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%, weekly production decreased by 1.71% to 75.76 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 16.13 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 0.84% to 88,540 tons. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.50% to 19.50 yuan [4]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased by 4.72% to 6,579 million tons, soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.54% to 170.20 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.18% [4]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices decreased. The prices of main benchmark delivery items in the spot market remained unchanged. The 11 - 01 spread and 11 - 03 spread changed, and the 01 contract basis increased [5]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 7.50 yuan [5]. Supply - Port shipments decreased by 13.99% to 176.6 million cubic meters. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 17.39% to 54.0. The total inventory in major ports increased by 1.41% to 288.00 million cubic meters [5]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume decreased by 2% to 6.28 million cubic meters [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber remained unchanged, and the whole - latex basis decreased by 2.30%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.01%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 229.63%. The prices of cup rubber, glue, and other raw materials remained unchanged [7]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 3.57%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 28.57%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 21.43% [7]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's August production decreased by 0.43% to 458.80 thousand tons, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30% to 189.00 thousand tons, India's increased by 11.11% to 50.00 thousand tons, and China's increased by 12.20 thousand tons. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased slightly. August domestic tire production increased by 9.10% to 10,295.4 million pieces. September tire exports decreased by 10.65% to 5,630.0 million pieces. August natural rubber imports increased by 14.41% to 59.59 million tons, and September imports increased by 12.12% to 74.00 million tons. The production cost of Thai dry rubber decreased, and the production margin increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.57% to 44,668 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 4.73% to 44,655 tons. The outbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of general trade increased [7].