Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views Pig Industry - Recently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has declined, the market supply is relatively loose, and the pig price has weakened. However, the overall slaughter progress in November will slow down, which may boost the pig price to some extent. Currently, the market has entered a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread can continue to be held [2]. Oil and Fat Industry - For palm oil, due to concerns about increased production and slowed exports, the futures price has further declined. It is necessary to pay attention to whether it can find support around 4000 ringgit and gradually stop falling and stabilize. Overall, it is expected to show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For soybean oil, the fundamentals in the US are currently bearish, but the rapid rise of CBOT soybeans has boosted the CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the supply is sufficient and the demand is weak, and the market may either rebound after a decline or directly rebound after a narrow - range oscillation [5]. Corn Industry - Currently, the concentrated supply of corn and the expected selling pressure limit the upward movement of the futures price, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, with low imports and resilient demand, and policy regulation, the price will be supported [6]. Meal Industry - China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of new - crop US soybeans this year, which has led to a sharp rise in the US soybean futures price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but the cost support is strengthening, and the domestic soybean meal is expected to show a strong trend. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is tightening, and the rapeseed meal price has risen sharply [8]. Cotton Industry - The purchase of seed cotton is approaching the end, and the cost of new cotton provides strong support for the cotton price. However, the price also faces hedging pressure, and the downstream demand is weak. In the short - term, the cotton price may oscillate within a range [10]. Sugar Industry - The expected increase in the supply surplus and the weakening of energy prices have led to a weak trend in the raw sugar price. However, as the sugar price is currently far below the Brazilian ethanol parity level, some sugar mills may reduce sugar production and increase ethanol production. It is expected that the raw sugar price will be supported around 14 cents per pound in the short - term, but will generally maintain a weak and oscillating trend. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline [13]. Egg Industry - In the short - term, the egg market still faces a situation of oversupply, and the price may be in a dilemma of rising or falling. However, with the slow recovery of demand, the price may gradually transition from a stalemate to a slow increase, and it is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The main contract basis decreased by 32.12% to 465, the price of Live Pig 2605 decreased by 0.80% to 11800 yuan/ton, and the price of Live Pig 2601 decreased by 0.68% to 11735 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 18.75% to - 65, the main contract position increased by 7.26% to 144679, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 10.19% to 185 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot prices in various regions generally decreased, with Henan down 300 yuan/ton to 12200 yuan/ton, Shandong down 200 yuan/ton to 12350 yuan/ton, etc. [2]. Spot Indicators - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.73% to 158597, the weekly strip price remained unchanged at 18.47, the weekly piglet price decreased by 23.08% to 20 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.16% to 127.69 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 51.89% to - 89 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit increased by 37.83% to - 180 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 0.07% to 40350000 heads [2]. Oil and Fat Industry Palm Oil - The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.15% to 8600 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 decreased by 1.14% to 8664 yuan/ton, the basis remained unchanged at - 64, the warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 250, and the import cost decreased by 1.24% to 9123.6 yuan/ton, while the import profit increased by 2.97% to - 460 yuan/ton [5]. Soybean Oil - The price of Y2601 decreased by 0.22% to 8110 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 4.41% to 260, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27644 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.51% to 9800 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI601 increased by 0.51% to 9470 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 0.61% to 330, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7540 [5]. Spreads - The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 11.76% to 190, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 16.00% to - 58, the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 37.37% to 386, the spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 23.33% to - 230, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.31% to - 802, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 5.93% to 1430, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 5.10% to 1360 [5]. Corn Industry Corn - The price of Corn 2601 increased by 0.52% to 2141 yuan/ton, the basis increased to 9, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6.19% to - 103, the Shekou bulk grain price decreased by 0.88% to 2240 yuan/ton, the north - south trade profit decreased by 102.56% to - 1 yuan/ton, the import profit decreased by 8.29% to 259 yuan/ton, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning decreased by 9.25% to 628, the position decreased by 0.61% to 1761555, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 63966 [6]. Corn Starch - The price of Corn Starch 2601 increased by 0.53% to 2453 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 18.57% to 57 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.78% to - 105, the 01 starch - corn spread increased by 0.65% to 312, the Shandong starch profit decreased by 49.17% to 61 yuan/ton, the position decreased by 0.09% to 280187, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41% to 12453 [6]. Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.66% to 3040 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.17% to 3026 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 1500.00% to 14, the import crushing profit for US Gulf in January increased by 3.8% to - 661, the import crushing profit for Brazil in December decreased by 23.8% to - 307, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 42332 [8]. Rapeseed Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 2.02% to 2520 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2601 increased by 4.31% to 2491 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 64.63% to 29, the import crushing profit for Canada in January increased by 32.60% to 659, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2955 [8]. Soybean - The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3900 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.63% to 4076 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 12.87% to - 176. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3940 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract increased by 0.48% to 3738 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 8.18% to 202, and the warehouse receipts increased by 2.07% to 7388 [8]. Spreads - The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5.29% to 197, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 141.30% to 111, the spot soybean - oil ratio decreased by 1.01% to 2.75, the main - contract soybean - oil ratio decreased by 0.39% to 2.68, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 5.45% to 520, and the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 15.48% to 535 [8]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of Cotton 2605 increased by 0.07% to 13812 yuan/ton, the price of Cotton 2601 increased by 0.04% to 13600 yuan/ton, the price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.20% to 65.69 cents per pound, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 50.00% to 15 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract decreased by 0.73% to 573916, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.31% to 2494, and the effective forecast increased by 1.45% to 1465 [10]. Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.12% to 14656 yuan/ton, the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.01% to 14859 yuan/ton, the FC Index of M: 1% increased by 0.09% to 13242 yuan/ton, the 3128B - 01 contract spread decreased by 2.62% to 1041 yuan/ton, the 3128B - 05 contract spread decreased by 2.13% to 1056 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B - FC Index of M: 1% spread decreased by 0.80% to 1617 yuan/ton [10]. Industry Situation - The commercial inventory increased by 68.4% to 172.02 million tons, the industrial inventory decreased by 4.3% to 80.93 million tons, the import volume increased by 42.9% to 10 million tons, the bonded area inventory decreased by 25.0% to 0.3 million tons, the yarn inventory days increased by 1.6% to 25.24 days, the grey cloth inventory days increased by 1.0% to 31.43 days, the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 22.6% to 53.46 million tons, the textile enterprise C32s immediate processing profit increased by 0.1% to - 1824.9 yuan/ton, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased by 17.7% to 123.05 billion yuan, the export volume of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased by 3.4% to 11.967 billion US dollars, and the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 12.0% to 12.453 billion US dollars [10]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.29% to 5499 yuan/ton, the price of Sugar 2605 increased by 0.37% to 5433 yuan/ton, the price of ICE raw sugar increased by 1.80% to 14.68 cents per pound, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.71% to 66 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract increased by 0.01% to 372791, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.90% to 7462, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 586 [12]. Spot Market - The Nanning spot price remained unchanged at 5750 yuan/ton, the Kunming spot price decreased by 0.26% to 5695 yuan/ton, the Nanning basis decreased by 5.93% to 317, the Kunming basis decreased by 11.78% to 262, the imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) price decreased by 0.62% to 3990 yuan/ton, the imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) price decreased by 0.65% to 5052 yuan/ton [12]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 10.48 million tons, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 6.465 million tons, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 41.20% to 0.2666 million tons, the national cumulative sugar sales rate decreased by 2.60% to 93.9%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 4.80% to 93.9%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% to 0.6821 million tons, the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi increased by 62.90% to 0.4421 million tons, the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 26.60% to 0.3365 million tons, and the sugar import volume increased by 37.50% to 0.55 million tons [12]. Egg Industry Futures and Spot Indicators - The price of the Egg 12 contract increased by 0.38% to 3158 yuan/500KG, the price of the Egg 01 contract increased by 0.87% to 3347 yuan/500KG, the egg - producing area price decreased by 2.15% to 2.88 yuan/jin, the basis decreased by 37.13% to - 278 yuan/500KG, the 12 - 01 spread decreased by 9.88% to - 189 [15]. Industry Indicators - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks increased by 5.66% to 2.8 yuan/chick, the price of culled chickens decreased by 4.20% to 4.11 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio increased by 1.28% to 2.38, and the breeding profit increased by 6.36% to - 24.44 yuan/chick [15].
《农产品》日报-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-04 06:47