瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust. Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in prices, the bearish sentiment is rising, and the lower limit of the range is being tested. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,700 yuan/ton, down 1,250 yuan; the spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai nickel is -240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,115 dollars/ton, down 135 dollars; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 118,460 lots, up 9,789 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is -31,010 lots, up 3,503 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 252,750 tons, up 648 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 36,751 tons (weekly), up 676 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,426 tons, unchanged [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 30,952 tons, down 254 tons [3]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 2,100 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -211.5 dollars/ton, down 6.66 dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,479.1 million tons (weekly), down 18.81 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 dollars/ton, down 4.61 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0853 billion tons, up 0.2112 billion tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 billion tons, up 24.8 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 580,800 tons, up 4,100 tons [3]. Industry News - Lan Fo'an stated that the package debt resolution plan should be further implemented, and the replacement of local government's existing implicit debts should be done well. Not adding new implicit debts is regarded as an "iron - clad discipline", and a unified long - term supervision system for local government debts should be established [3]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October did not rise as expected but fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation [3]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan believes that the Fed's policy is too tight and a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts should be made to achieve a neutral interest rate [3]. Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - level, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in October declined instead of rising, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. On the fundamental level, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic - trade ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore is at a high level, but the grade of nickel ore has declined, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year [3]. - At the smelting end, newly invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to low nickel prices and cost - end pressure, some smelters are suffering losses and reducing production, so the growth of refined nickel output is expected to be limited [3]. - On the demand side, stainless steel mills show the characteristic of a weak peak season, but with the decline of nickel iron cost, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the planned output is expected to increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [3]. - Domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, and the market mainly purchases as needed, with the spot premium rising; overseas LME inventory also shows an increase [3].