瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 24th to 30th, styrene production and capacity utilization decreased, downstream consumption declined slightly, and plant and port inventories decreased but the inventory pressure remained high. Non - integrated process costs decreased and profits improved. This week, the impact of shutdown devices is expected to expand, and production and capacity utilization are expected to continue to decline. Downstream devices have the expectation of increasing load, which may deepen the short - term tight balance of ethylene supply and demand, but the positive impact on supply - demand improvement under high inventory pressure is limited. The integrated profit of styrene is close to the break - even line, indicating low valuation. EB2512 should pay attention to the support around 6300 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active futures contract for styrene was 6354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92 yuan; the trading volume was 515,106 lots, an increase of 185,190 lots; the 1 - month contract closing price was 6391 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104 yuan. The long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 440,755 lots, the net long - position volume was - 16,621 lots (an increase of 5749 lots), the short - position volume was 457,376 lots (a decrease of 3905 lots), the open interest was 401,028 lots (a decrease of 12,549 lots), and the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots (a decrease of 74 lots) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6752 yuan/ton, unchanged; FOB Korea was 795 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars; CFR China was 805 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6175 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 6390 yuan/ton, and 6460 yuan/ton respectively, with the South China price increasing by 20 yuan/ton and the others remaining unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf were 741 dollars/ton, 731 dollars/ton, 664 dollars/ton, and 457 dollars/ton respectively, with the US Gulf price decreasing by 6 dollars/ton. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB), and the market prices in South, East, and North China were 676 dollars/ton, 5450 yuan/ton, 5420 yuan/ton, and 5230 yuan/ton respectively, with the East and North China prices increasing by 70 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 66.72%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the national inventory was 186,036 tons, a decrease of 10,231 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 109,800 tons, a decrease of 11,200 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 62.24% (an increase of 0.26 percentage points), 72.1% (a decrease of 0.7 percentage points), 52% (a decrease of 1.8 percentage points), 35% (an increase of 1 percentage point), and 66.71% (a decrease of 3.86 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, styrene production decreased by 1.1% week - on - week to 323,400 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 2.53% week - on - week to 66.72%. Downstream EPS, PS, and ABS consumption decreased by 0.18% week - on - week to 271,500 tons. As of October 30th, the styrene plant inventory was 186,000 tons, a decrease of 5.21% week - on - week. As of November 3rd, the East China port inventory was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 7.10% week - on - week; the South China port inventory was 27,900 tons, a decrease of 10% week - on - week. From October 24th to 30th, non - integrated costs decreased to 6860.06 yuan/ton, and non - integrated device profits improved to - 400 yuan/ton. EB2512 fell 1.99% to close at 6354 yuan/ton last week. Some devices such as Tianjin Bohua's 450,000 - ton and Zhongwei Guangdong's 800,000 - ton plants were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in styrene production and capacity utilization [2]