Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean No. 1, the two - lakes region's new - season soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, and downstream demand is picking up. However, due to high prices and competition from the Huanghuaihai region, the price increase is limited. The soybean No. 1 2601 contract fell 0.9%, and short - term market is expected to be stable [2]. - For soybean No. 2, influenced by the strong performance of US soybeans, imported soybeans are running strongly. The market anticipates China to expand its purchase of US agricultural products including soybeans after the Sino - US trade negotiation [3]. - For soybean meal, although domestic inventory is relatively high and supply is sufficient, due to cost support, oil mills are inclined to support prices, leading to a strong - fluctuating market [3]. - For soybean oil, domestic supply is abundant, demand is weak, and if China significantly increases soybean imports from the US as expected, the supply gap in Q1 will be filled, making the short - term market under pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices: The closing prices of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures main contracts were 4055 yuan/ton, 3725 yuan/ton, 3015 yuan/ton, and 8108 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 13 yuan/ton, - 11 yuan/ton, and - 2 yuan/ton [2]. - Positions: The main - contract positions of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 251451 lots, 137116 lots, 1587968 lots, and 480655 lots respectively, with changes of - 6995 lots, + 4702 lots, - 7077 lots, and - 2668 lots [2]. - Net Buying Volume of Top 20 Holders: The net buying volumes of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 741 lots, - 4033 lots, - 620755 lots, and - 136972 lots respectively, with changes of + 1105 lots, + 2611 lots, - 7830 lots, and - 3962 lots [2]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 10088 lots, 400 lots, 42152 lots, and 27644 lots respectively, with changes of + 2700 lots, + 400 lots, - 180 lots, and 0 lots [2]. - CBOT Futures Settlement Prices: The settlement prices of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil active contracts were 1134.25 cents/bushel, 320.8 dollars/short - ton, and 49.84 cents/pound respectively, with changes of + 19 cents/bushel, - 0.8 dollars/short - ton, and + 1.16 cents/pound [2]. Spot Prices - Domestic Spot Prices: The domestic soybean spot price was 3920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil prices in Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, and Zhanjiang were 8310 yuan/ton, 8380 yuan/ton, and 8430 yuan/ton respectively, up 10 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton; the soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang was 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Import Costs: The import costs of US Gulf soybeans and Brazilian soybeans were 4119 yuan/ton and 4016 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of + 101 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and Inventory: The annual US soybean production was 117.98 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; the US soybean ending inventory was 8.44 million tons, up 0.41 million tons; the Brazilian soybean production was 175 million tons, unchanged; the Brazilian soybean ending inventory was 39.96 million tons, up 5.67 million tons [2]. - Inspection and Export: The weekly soybean inspection volume was 39165 thousand bushels, down 15239 thousand bushels; the weekly soybean export volume was 512379 tons, down 324743 tons; the monthly Brazilian soybean export volume was 7120000 tons, up 370000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory and Import: The daily port inventory of imported soybeans was 8048790 tons, down 125350 tons; the weekly soybean meal inventory was 1054600 tons, up 78400 tons; the daily national port inventory of soybean oil was 1234000 tons, up 29000 tons; the monthly soybean import volume was 12869100 tons, up 590400 tons [2]. - Oil Mill Operations: The weekly oil mill operating rate was 65.13%, up 5.54 percentage points; the weekly oil mill crushing volume was 2367400 tons, up 201200 tons [2]. - Related Product Prices and Spreads: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian was 9880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the daily soybean - palm oil spread was - 190 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the daily rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the daily average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2617.37 yuan/ton, up 17.37 yuan/ton; the daily soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 432.63 yuan/ton, down 7.37 yuan/ton [2]. - Sales Volume and Profit: The weekly soybean meal sales volume of oil mills was 616000 tons, up 65600 tons; the weekly soybean oil sales volume of oil mills was 111100 tons, up 32300 tons; the daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 73.9 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton; the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 71.4 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption and Production: The annual total domestic soybean consumption in China was 126.8 million tons, up 5.1 million tons; the annual food consumption of soybean oil in China was 18800 thousand tons, up 900 thousand tons [2]. - Livestock - related Data: The daily price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Daxing, Beijing was 12.17 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg; the weekly expected profit of pig farming was - 192.7 yuan/head, up 72.5 yuan/head; the monthly feed production was 31287000 tons, up 2015000 tons; the monthly pig inventory was 43680000 heads, up 1233000 heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows was 4035000 heads, down 3000 heads [2]. Option Market - For soybean meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.92%, up 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.92%, up 0.3 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility was 12.32%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.3%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - As of last Thursday, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean season reached 47% of the expected area, accelerating from 36% the previous week but significantly behind 54% of the same period last year [2] - According to the average estimate of nine analysts, the US soybean harvest rate reached 91% as of last Sunday [2] - In the domestic spot market, the storage capacity is nearly saturated, soybean acquisition is difficult, prices remain high, and farmers are reluctant to sell [2]
美国农业部豆类产业日报-20251104
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-04 09:05