瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term PVC futures market is expected to fluctuate in the low - valuation range, with technical support around 4640 and resistance around 4820 [3]. - With the arrival of winter, terminal demand for infrastructure and real estate weakens, and there is a seasonal decline expectation for the downstream PVC operating rate. The anti - dumping tax in India has no specific implementation time, and overseas demand remains uncertain. Domestic supply - demand contradictions are significant, making PVC de - stocking difficult, and high inventory pressure may persist [3]. - The high - operating state of PVC may continue as winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance. The restart of some plants is expected to keep the capacity utilization rate rising [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; trading volume was 649,206 lots, a decrease of 117,205 lots; open interest was 1,243,783 lots, an increase of 7,046 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 155,901 lots, a decrease of 1,460 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4606.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.46 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4691.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.38 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 151 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2690 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 518 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; the inventory in the East China region was 495,300 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons; the inventory in the South China region was 49,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.9%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.26%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 14.57%, an increase of 0.54 and 0.53 percentage points respectively [3]. Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a 1.69% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 0.8% to 42% and the profile operating rate increasing by 1.96% to 37.83% [3]. - As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons compared with the previous period, and increased by 25.09% year - on - year. From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5201 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5288 yuan/ton [3]. Profit Situation - The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3].