瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the HC2601 contract's decline widened. With the fading of macro - level positives, tariff disruptions resurfaced, and the decline in furnace materials dragged down finished products. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows DIFF and DEA moving downward. The operation suggestion is to take a short - biased view on the market's oscillation, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; main contract positions: 1,396,130 hands, a decrease of 26,705 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 85,292 hands, a decrease of 7,099 hands; HC1 - 5 contract spread: - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; HC last - trading - day warehouse receipts: 130,301 tons, an increase of 1,764 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In terms of 4.75 - mm hot - rolled coil prices, Hangzhou is 3,350 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Guangzhou is 3,280 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), Wuhan is 3,370 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and Tianjin is 3,210 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). The HC main contract basis is 85 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore powder: 785 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 145.3924 million tons, an increase of 1.1859 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 374,400 tons, an increase of 700 tons; sample steel mill coke inventory is 6.2888 million tons, a decrease of 43,900 tons; Hebei billet inventory is 1.1957 million tons, a decrease of 103,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, a decrease of 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 3.2356 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 82.65%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 776,600 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 3.2893 million tons, a decrease of 86,400 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 73.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.88 million tons; the steel net export volume is 9.92 million tons, an increase of 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production is 3.2758 million vehicles, an increase of 460,400 vehicles; automobile sales are 3.2264 million vehicles, an increase of 369,800 vehicles. Air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, an increase of 1.276 million units; household refrigerator production is 10.1276 million units, an increase of 674,400 units; household washing - machine production is 11.7849 million units, an increase of 1.653 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. - China - EU export control dialogue consultations were held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to maintain communication to promote the stability and smoothness of the China - EU industrial and supply chains [2].