瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply is under less pressure due to import restrictions and oil - mill shutdowns, but the demand is also weakening as aquaculture demand decreases and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is supported by the tightening supply of imported rapeseed and the de - stocking mode. However, the demand is mainly for essential needs due to the sufficient supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. The near - month contracts of rapeseed oil perform better than the far - month ones, and the price is in a narrow - range fluctuation, suggesting short - term observation [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9443 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2497 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The ICE rapeseed closing price is 647.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.7 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5130 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 363 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is - 85 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are - 3380 lots, down 5277 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are - 24967 lots, up 13261 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2955, unchanged. The main - contract positions for rapeseed oil are 213040 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are 375310 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9770 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9887.5 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The import cost of rapeseed is 7969.31 yuan/ton, up 150.43 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.78, down 0.03 [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 327 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 33 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1360 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total rapeseed import volume is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons [2]. - The crushing profit of imported rapeseed is 596 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan. The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 2 tons, down 1 ton; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 1.6%, down 1.33% [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 16 tons, up 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 3.8 tons, down 0.4 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.71 tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 47.8 tons, down 1.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 26.05 tons, down 0.7 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.4 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume is 1.84 tons, up 1.49 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume is 0.39 tons, up 0.17 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 201.5 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 3128.7 tons, up 495 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 23.8%, up 1.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.97%, down 3.52%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 25.27%, up 4.27%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 26.8%, up 1.45% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.42%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13%, down 1.6%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 13.77%, up 0.22%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 15.09%, up 0.03% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - On November 3, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by trade optimism and the spill - over effect of CBOT soybean futures. The January rapeseed futures closed 10.90 Canadian dollars higher at 647.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons per year in the next three years, which boosts the US soybean futures price and benefits the domestic meal market [2]. - The Canadian Prime Minister and the Chinese President's meeting in South Korea failed to make a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is over, with a large supply and weakening exports, but an agreement with Pakistan provides additional support [2]. - GAPKI expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by 10% in 2025, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain, causing concerns about long - term biodiesel demand [2].