燃料油早报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, the 380 fuel oil crack spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated weakly. The European HSFO crack spread strengthened, and the EW spread weakened significantly. The 0.5 low-sulfur crack spread in Singapore oscillated at a low level, and the monthly spread and basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory increased, floating storage increased, ARA's residual oil inventory decreased, floating storage increased, and EIA's residual oil inventory decreased slightly. In terms of shipments, Russia's residual oil shipments rebounded this week but were still low year-on-year. Overall, Russia's residual oil shipments decreased month-on-month in October. Saudi Arabia's residual oil shipments oscillated at a high level, and the UAE's shipments decreased month-on-month. Singapore's arrivals were neutral this week, and China's residual oil arrivals increased month-on-month. This week, the domestic and foreign spreads of high and low sulfur rebounded significantly. The low-sulfur situation in the external market remained weak. The fundamentals of high-sulfur in Singapore were poor, but the EW spread and raw material premiums supported the 380 crack spread, showing a short-term oscillating pattern [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | 2025/11/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 390.02 | 392.05 | 393.07 | 387.22 | 377.13 | -10.09 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 417.07 | 417.96 | 416.37 | 421.01 | 413.33 | -7.68 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -3.04 | -2.63 | -2.40 | -3.40 | -4.53 | -1.13 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 689.14 | 691.99 | 688.48 | 679.38 | 683.70 | 4.32 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -272.07 | -274.03 | -272.11 | -258.37 | -270.37 | -12.00 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 29.11 | 29.43 | 28.89 | 27.83 | 27.98 | 0.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 27.05 | 25.91 | 23.30 | 33.79 | 36.20 | 2.41 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | 2025/11/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 373.72 | 373.35 | 375.53 | 380.33 | 374.38 | -5.95 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 380.28 | 378.91 | 382.28 | 388.78 | 380.63 | -8.15 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 438.46 | 443.70 | 449.25 | 456.36 | 452.30 | -4.06 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 89.63 | 90.58 | 92.03 | 89.51 | 90.09 | 0.58 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -4.56 | -4.93 | -4.98 | -4.44 | -4.96 | -0.52 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -224.80 | -226.59 | -231.77 | -206.01 | -214.37 | -8.36 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | 2025/11/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 372.68 | 372.56 | 374.81 | - | 369.12 | - | | FOB VLSFO | 437.28 | 442.83 | 448.61 | 456.00 | 448.83 | -7.17 | | 380 Basis | -1.80 | -1.95 | -1.75 | -3.75 | -6.00 | -2.25 | | High-Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 10.4 | 9.1 | - | 8.0 | 7.9 | -0.1 | | Low-Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 12.6 | 14.3 | - | 10.2 | 9.4 | -0.8 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | 2025/11/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2796 | 2751 | 2745 | 2790 | 2764 | -26 | | FU 05 | 2744 | 2713 | 2712 | 2755 | 2732 | -23 | | FU 09 | 2672 | 2657 | 2653 | 2683 | 2671 | -12 | | FU 01 - 05 | 52 | 38 | 33 | 35 | 32 | -3 | | FU 05 - 09 | 72 | 56 | 59 | 72 | 61 | -11 | | FU 09 - 01 | -124 | -94 | -92 | -107 | -93 | 14 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | 2025/11/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3246 | 3255 | 3268 | 3335 | 3290 | -45 | | LU 05 | 3212 | 3223 | 3239 | 3288 | 3261 | -27 | | LU 09 | 3235 | 3237 | 3252 | 3288 | 3254 | -34 | | LU 01 - 05 | 34 | 32 | 29 | 47 | 29 | -18 | | LU 05 - 09 | -23 | -14 | -13 | 0 | 7 | 7 | | LU 09 - 01 | -11 | -18 | -16 | -47 | -36 | 11 | [6]