建信期货股指日评-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] 2. Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, with the easing of the external environment and the new policy expectations injected by the 15th Five - Year Plan, the upward trend of stock indices remains unchanged. But in the short - term, after the positive news of the Sino - US meeting and the disclosure of the third - quarter reports, policy expectations have weakened, market sentiment is flat, and the market may maintain a volatile consolidation near the key pressure level of 4000 points of the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style still focuses on the dumbbell strategy, with a balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [7][8] 4. Market Review - On November 4, the Wind All - A Index declined with shrinking volume, opening with a downward trend and slightly recovering in the late trading, closing down 1.03%, with only 30% of stocks rising. CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.75%, 0.11%, 1.67%, and 1.36% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. In the index futures market, futures performed weaker than spot. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.99%, 0.28%, 2.00%, and 1.54% respectively (based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6] 5. Market Outlook - External Market: The leaders of China and the United States met in Busan, South Korea, reaching consensus on issues such as "fentanyl tariffs", export controls, shipbuilding, fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual enterprise cases. However, since market expectations were already high, the market weakened after the positive news was confirmed [7] - Domestic Market: September economic data showed increased fundamental pressure, with social retail consumption and fixed - asset investment lower than expected. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative, and the decline in real estate investment widened. Policy support is needed. The Fourth Plenary Session communique confirmed the content of the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the detailed content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on the 28th, boosting confidence and providing policy guidance for the future market style. The margin trading balance has continuously broken historical records and is currently fluctuating at a high level. A potential interest - rate cut by the Federal Reserve may bring new liquidity, but the slowdown of the trend of household deposits moving into the market needs further observation [7] 6. Industry News - On October 31, President Xi Jinping met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, reaching important consensus and providing strategic guidance for improving China - Canada relations. On November 3, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that China is willing to work with Canada to resume and restart exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the resolution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern, aiming to bring China - Canada relations back on a healthy, stable, and sustainable track [26]