建信期货豆粕日报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry - The report focuses on the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The agreement between China and the US on soybean procurement is expected to reduce the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year from oversupply to a tight balance, leaving room for the US CBOT soybeans to rise. The increase in China's import cost of soybeans will drive up the price of soybean meal. In the short term, CBOT soybeans are well - supported, and soybean meal can be treated with a moderately bullish view [6] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: For soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2603, and 2511 all declined slightly on the day. The US soybean futures contracts on the external market fell, with the main contract at 1125 cents. If China purchases 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually in the next three years as the US stated, it will have a significant impact on the soybean market [6] - Operation Suggestions: In the short term, CBOT soybeans are well - supported, and soybean meal can be treated with a moderately bullish view. However, the uncertainty lies in the implementation of the policy [6] 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The report was not released in October due to the government shutdown. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 [9] - According to analysts' estimates, as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate reached 91%, and the corn harvest rate reached 83%. It is expected that the US will have a record - high corn harvest this year, and soybeans will also have a good harvest [10]