建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot price of eggs is stable, with the average price in the main production areas at 2.86 yuan/jin and in the main sales areas at 3.17 yuan/jin. The 12 - contract fell 0.16%. In the spot market, large - sized eggs are in short supply while small - sized eggs are abundant at the end of the month, indicating high levels of both egg - laying start and culling. It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate at a low level in November. [8] - In the futures market, although the absolute price is at a historical low, due to the early stage of accelerated culling, the high - supply situation will continue for some time. The weak demand also suppresses the spot price. The upside is limited, and the accelerated culling restricts the downside. It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. The fundamental inflection point may appear as early as the beginning of next year, and weekly culling data should be monitored. [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - For the 2601 egg contract, the pre - settlement price was 3341, the opening price was 3347, the highest price was 3369, the lowest price was 3326, the closing price was 3337, down 4 or 0.12%. The trading volume was 98,689, and the open interest was 165,925 with an open - interest change of 155,516. [7] - For the 2511 egg contract, the pre - settlement price was 2892, the opening price was 2904, the highest price was 2946, the lowest price was 2892, the closing price was 2928, up 36 or 1.24%. The trading volume was 35,540, and the open interest change was - 45. [7] - For the 2512 egg contract, the pre - settlement price was 3149, the opening price was 3157, the highest price was 3189, the lowest price was 3132, the closing price was 3144, down 5 or 0.16%. The trading volume was 248,353, the open interest was 166,976, and the open - interest change was - 10,026. [7] - Operation Suggestions: Use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. Monitor weekly culling data for long - term trends. [8] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on the rise. As of the end of September, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.368 billion, a 0.2% month - on - month increase, with growth for 9 consecutive months and a 6.0% year - on - year increase compared to the same period last year. [9] - The monthly output of laying - hen chicks by sample enterprises in September was about 39.2 million, down from 39.81 million in August and significantly lower than 45.64 million in the same period in 2024. The low breeding profits in the past three months have started to change farmers' expansion mindset. [9] - From the first to the third week as of October 23, the national culling volumes were 20.02 million, 20.32 million, and 19.76 million respectively. As of October 23, the average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from last week and 1 day later than last month. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - farming profits, the average price in the main egg - producing areas, the seasonal trend of the 12 - contract, the basis of the 11 - contract, and the price difference between the 12 - 02 contracts, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen. [11][15][16]