建信期货国债日报-20251105

Report Information - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Research Analysts: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. If there are phased disturbances leading to market over - adjustment, it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: At the beginning of the month, funds were loose, the stock market continued to adjust, and the sentiment in the bond market was okay. Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term increases and long - term decreases, with narrow fluctuations in the medium and long - term. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 dropped by 0.1bp to 1.789% [8][9] - Funding Market: At the beginning of the month, the funding situation was stable and loose. There were 475.3 billion yuan of maturities in the open market, and the central bank injected 117.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.31, the 7 - day rate rose slightly by 0.75bp to 1.4262%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.63% [10] - Conclusion: The economic fundamentals are under pressure due to weak domestic demand and a possible decline in exports. The market's expectation of monetary easing may rise again. The combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies has been strengthened, and the restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The impact of wide - credit from wide - fiscal policies on the bond market should be limited. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved, and allocation opportunities should be seized if there is market over - adjustment [11][12] 2. Industry News - China's Manufacturing PMI: China's S&P manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from 51.2 in the previous month. The expansion of the manufacturing PMI slowed down overall [13] - US - China Relations: The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose additional tariffs on China if China continued to restrict rare - earth exports. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways [13] - China - EU Exports: China and the EU held export control dialogue and consultations in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [13] - High - level Forecast: Goldman Sachs' China research team raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting China's exports to grow by 5 - 6% annually in the coming years and raising the forecast for China's real GDP growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5% [13] - Exhibition Information: The 8th China International Import Expo will be held in Shanghai from November 5th to 10th, and Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony [13] - US Fed Policy: Fed Governor Cook said that each Fed meeting is real - time for monetary policy, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in December depending on new information. Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts [14] - US Government Shutdown: As of November 4th, the US federal government's shutdown entered the 35th day, tying the longest - ever shutdown record [14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: The report provides data on trading of Treasury bond futures contracts on November 4th, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests. It also mentions information on cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of Treasury bond futures main contracts [6] - Money Market: The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate change [29][31] - Derivatives Market: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]