建信期货多晶硅日报-20251105

Group 1: Report Date - The report date is November 05, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers such as Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (industrial silicon/polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), and Liu Youran (pulp) [1][3] Group 3: Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract continued to decline. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.91%. The trading volume was 274,348 lots, and the open interest was 12,968 lots, with a net decrease of 14,968 lots [4] Group 4: Spot Prices - The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The significant repair of polysilicon profits suppresses the willingness for active production cuts. The monthly output remains at around 130,000 tons, and the supply - demand imbalance has not been reversed. The price continued to weaken during the day. The continuous strengthening of the US dollar index led to a sharp decline in the prices of externally - priced commodities. Multiple equity markets also declined simultaneously, spreading strong macro - hedging risk signals. The fundamental situation of polysilicon itself remains weak. The previous 01 contract had a significant premium, resulting in weak price support within a narrow range. The net long positions of the 01 contract decreased by 7,983 lots, and the price is expected to oscillate in the lower half of the range [4] Group 6: Market News - On November 04, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,590 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In September 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5] - On October 27, Daquan Energy announced that its revenue in the third quarter reached 1.773 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.75%, and the net profit was 73.479 million yuan. The announcement also showed that the revenue in the first three quarters was 3.243 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.00%, and the net profit loss was 1.073 billion yuan [5] - On October 25, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) disclosed its Q3 2025 report. In the third quarter, the company achieved an operating income of 24.091 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 1.57%. However, the net profit loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company narrowed, with a year - on - year reduction of 62.69% and a quarter - on - quarter reduction of 86.68%. The recovery of the industry environment had a positive impact on the company's profitability [5]